Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 16:00
25d 6h to kick-offFerencváros TC – Paksi FC
Model updated 7 October, 09:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Ferencváros TC
- 58%
- Draw
- 22%
- Paksi FC
- 19%
| Ferencváros TC | Draw | Paksi FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.71 | 4.49 | 5.15 |
- Total goals
- 3.71
- Over 2.5 goals
- 74%
- Both teams to score
- 72%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Ferencváros TC
58% Ferencváros TC to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 11th
- Ferencváros TC attack v Paksi FC defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 4th
- Ferencváros TC defence v Paksi FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.87 vs -0.55
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.33 – 1.38
- Ferencváros TC v Paksi FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Ferencváros TC | Paksi FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.35 · 3rd from 3 matches | 1.78 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.64 · 2nd from 3 matches | 2.87 · 12th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.72 · 2nd from 3 matches | -1.09 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.91 · 2nd from 3 matches | 0.85 · 12th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.87 | -0.55 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 27% of the model's distribution.
- Ferencváros TC clean sheet
- 22%
- Ferencváros TC 2+ goals
- 70%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 26%
- Both teams to score: no
- 28%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.2%
- 1:1
- 9.1%
- 3:1
- 8.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ferencváros TC sample
- 20 matches
- Paksi FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Ferencváros TC
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Paksi FC
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.