Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 15:30
18d 4h to kick-offPuskás Akadémia – Nyiregyháza Spartacus
Model updated 7 October, 09:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Puskás Akadémia
- 34%
- Draw
- 25%
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- 40%
| Puskás Akadémia | Draw | Nyiregyháza Spartacus | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.91 | 3.93 | 2.48 |
- Total goals
- 3.60
- Over 2.5 goals
- 72%
- Both teams to score
- 75%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Nyiregyháza Spartacus
40% Nyiregyháza Spartacus to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 6th
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus attack v Puskás Akadémia defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 6th
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus defence v Puskás Akadémia attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.30 vs +0.62
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.73 – 1.87
- Puskás Akadémia v Nyiregyháza Spartacus
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Puskás Akadémia | Nyiregyháza Spartacus |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 2.21 · 5th | (better) 2.70 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 1.73 · 3rd | (better) 1.31 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | +0.48 · 3rd | (better) +1.39 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 1.65 · 4th | (better) 2.12 · 1st from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.62 | (better) +1.30 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 28% of the model's distribution.
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus clean sheet
- 15%
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 28%
- Both teams to score: no
- 25%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 10.3%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
- 2:2
- 8.5%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Puskás Akadémia sample
- 20 matches
- Nyiregyháza Spartacus sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Puskás Akadémia
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Nyiregyháza Spartacus
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 09:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.