Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 15:30
32d 16h to kick-offDukla Banská Bystrica – FC Spartak Trnava
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 25%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Spartak Trnava
- 48%
| Dukla Banská Bystrica | Draw | FC Spartak Trnava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.03 | 3.65 | 2.09 |
- Total goals
- 3.03
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
One of these teams has only 6 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Spartak Trnava
48% FC Spartak Trnava to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 9th
- FC Spartak Trnava attack v Dukla Banská Bystrica defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 11th
- FC Spartak Trnava defence v Dukla Banská Bystrica attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.31 vs -1.11
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.26 – 1.76
- Dukla Banská Bystrica v FC Spartak Trnava
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 6 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dukla Banská Bystrica | FC Spartak Trnava |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.97 · 12th | (better) 2.57 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGA / match | 2.09 · 9th | (better) 0.96 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xGD / match | -1.11 · 12th | (better) +1.61 · 1st from 4 matches |
| xPts / match | 0.79 · 12th | (better) 2.25 · 1st from 4 matches |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -1.11 | (better) +1.31 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FC Spartak Trnava clean sheet
- 25%
- FC Spartak Trnava 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 40%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.2%
- 1:2
- 11.0%
- 2:1
- 7.7%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dukla Banská Bystrica sample
- 6 matches
- FC Spartak Trnava sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dukla Banská Bystrica
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Spartak Trnava
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Warnings
- Dukla Banská Bystrica has only 6 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.