Arda Kardzhali 1:1 Levski Sofia: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Tuesday, 27/10/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Arda Kardzhali Home 1.10 xG

Levski Sofia Away 0.72 xG

11 Arda Kardzhali had the better chances, but it finished level

Levski Sofia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Levski Sofia's attack: 0.72 xG against 1.37 projected (−0.65).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Arda Kardzhali: 25%
Draw: 32% What happened
Levski Sofia: 43%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Arda Kardzhali 1.01 1.10 +0.09

Levski Sofia 1.37 0.72 -0.65

Levski Sofia produced 0.65 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Arda Kardzhali Levski Sofia

Shots: 4; 10
On target: 1; 5
Inside the box: 3; 7
xG per shot: 0.28; 0.07

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.38 xG created 1.49 xGA

W 0.87 created, 1.22 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
W 1.39 created, 1.23 conceded against Botev Vratsa
L 3.71 created, 0.82 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
L 0.87 created, 3.10 conceded against CSKA Sofia
D 1.38 created, 1.34 conceded against Cherno More Varna
L 0.05 created, 1.21 conceded against Ludogorets

Levski Sofia

1.96 xG created 0.91 xGA

W 3.70 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
W 0.66 created, 1.72 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
W 2.34 created, 0.32 conceded against Slavia Sofia
W 1.71 created, 1.35 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
D 2.01 created, 0.79 conceded against Botev Vratsa
W 1.31 created, 1.30 conceded against Cherno More Varna

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Arda Kardzhali: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 qualified edges flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Arda Kardzhali against Levski Sofia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals	6.50	+73.3%	Lost
Arda Kardzhali to win	6.50	+60.7%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.50	+33.0%	Lost
Arda Kardzhali to score	2.00	+32.6%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+8.1%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.44	+5.4%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.40	+3.8%	Lost
Levski Sofia at most 1 goal	1.73	+2.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Arda Kardzhali	24.7%	14.1%	+10.6 pp	4.04
Draw	31.8%	27.0%	+4.8 pp	3.15
Levski Sofia	43.5%	58.9%	−15.4 pp	2.30

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Arda Kardzhali to score	66.3%	46.3%	+20.0 pp	1.51
Arda Kardzhali not to score	33.7%	53.7%	−20.0 pp	2.97
Levski Sofia to score	77.4%	78.3%	−0.9 pp	1.29
Levski Sofia not to score	22.6%	21.7%	+0.9 pp	4.42
Both teams to score	53.2%	37.5%	+15.7 pp	1.88
Both teams not to score	46.8%	62.5%	−15.7 pp	2.14
Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals	26.7%	14.6%	+12.1 pp	3.75
Arda Kardzhali at most 1 goal	73.3%	85.4%	−12.1 pp	1.36
Levski Sofia 2+ goals	40.8%	46.3%	−5.5 pp	2.45
Levski Sofia at most 1 goal	59.2%	53.7%	+5.5 pp	1.69
Over 1.5 goals	73.0%	64.5%	+8.5 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	27.0%	35.5%	−8.5 pp	3.70
Over 2.5 goals	43.2%	39.0%	+4.3 pp	2.31
Under 2.5 goals	56.8%	61.0%	−4.3 pp	1.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Arda Kardzhali sample: 20 matches
Levski Sofia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 43 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 29 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.