Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 17:00
25d 19h to kick-offBotev Vratsa – Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Model updated 5 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Botev Vratsa
- 30%
- Draw
- 36%
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 35%
| Botev Vratsa | Draw | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.37 | 2.80 | 2.90 |
- Total goals
- 1.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 32%
- Both teams to score
- 46%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Lokomotiv Plovdiv to win
- Attack
- 11th vs 10th
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv attack v Botev Vratsa defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 12th
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv defence v Botev Vratsa attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.19 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 0.95 – 1.04
- Botev Vratsa v Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Botev Vratsa | Lokomotiv Plovdiv |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.93 · 13th | (better) 1.02 · 11th |
| xGA / match | 1.49 · 10th | (better) 1.14 · 5th |
| xGD / match | -0.55 · 10th | (better) -0.12 · 7th |
| xPts / match | 1.03 · 10th | (better) 1.24 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) -0.19 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 44% of the model's distribution.
- Botev Vratsa clean sheet
- 32%
- Botev Vratsa 2+ goals
- 24%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 68%
- Both teams to score: no
- 54%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 18.0%
- 0:0
- 13.6%
- 0:1
- 12.0%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Botev Vratsa sample
- 20 matches
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Botev Vratsa
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.