Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
17d 15h to kick-offCherno More Varna – FK Septemvri Sofia
Model updated 7 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Cherno More Varna
- 37%
- Draw
- 35%
- FK Septemvri Sofia
- 28%
| Cherno More Varna | Draw | FK Septemvri Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.71 | 2.86 | 3.56 |
- Total goals
- 2.08
- Over 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score
- 48%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Cherno More Varna
37% Cherno More Varna to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 7th
- Cherno More Varna attack v FK Septemvri Sofia defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 13th
- Cherno More Varna defence v FK Septemvri Sofia attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.46 vs -0.35
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.12 – 0.96
- Cherno More Varna v FK Septemvri Sofia
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Cherno More Varna | FK Septemvri Sofia |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.08 · 10th | (better) 1.09 · 9th |
| xGA / match | 1.43 · 9th | (better) 1.41 · 8th |
| xGD / match | -0.35 · 9th | (better) -0.32 · 8th |
| xPts / match | 1.12 · 9th | (better) 1.23 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.46 | (better) -0.35 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 42% of the model's distribution.
- Cherno More Varna clean sheet
- 35%
- Cherno More Varna 2+ goals
- 31%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score: no
- 52%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 17.9%
- 0:0
- 12.5%
- 1:0
- 11.8%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Cherno More Varna sample
- 20 matches
- FK Septemvri Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Cherno More Varna
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Septemvri Sofia
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.