xgEdge

Expected goals

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Parva Liga (Bulgaria) · after 10 matches · updated 4 Oct

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia's attacking and defensive expected goals in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.66 xG per match
#4/14
Attack (xG per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Ludogorets 2.42
#2 CSKA Sofia 2.24
#3 Levski Sofia 2.09
#4 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.66
#5 Botev Plovdiv 1.57
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.55
#7 FK Dunav Ruse 1.16
#8 Lokomotiv Sofia 1.10
#9 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.09
#10 Cherno More Varna 1.08
#11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.02
#12 FK Spartak Varna 0.95
#13 Botev Vratsa 0.93
#14 Slavia Sofia 0.75
League avg
1.39
Total
16.57 10 matches
Defence
1.31 xGA per match
#7/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Levski Sofia 0.73
#2 CSKA Sofia 0.86
#3 Botev Plovdiv 1.01
#4 Ludogorets 1.02
#5 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.14
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.26
#7 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.31
#8 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.41
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.43
#10 Botev Vratsa 1.49
#11 Slavia Sofia 1.60
#12 FK Spartak Varna 2.01
#13 Lokomotiv Sofia 2.10
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 2.31
League avg
1.39
Total
13.09 10 matches
xG difference
+0.35 xGD per match
#5/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Ludogorets +1.39
#2 CSKA Sofia +1.38
#3 Levski Sofia +1.36
#4 Botev Plovdiv +0.56
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia +0.35
#6 Arda Kardzhali +0.29
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv -0.12
#8 FK Septemvri Sofia -0.32
#9 Cherno More Varna -0.35
#10 Botev Vratsa -0.55
#11 Slavia Sofia -0.85
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia -1.00
#13 FK Spartak Varna -1.06
#14 FK Dunav Ruse -1.16
League avg
0.00
Total
+3.48 10 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.58 xPts per match
#5/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 CSKA Sofia 2.26
#2 Ludogorets 2.19
#3 Levski Sofia 2.19
#4 Botev Plovdiv 1.80
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 1.58
#6 Arda Kardzhali 1.57
#7 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.24
#8 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.23
#9 Cherno More Varna 1.12
#10 Botev Vratsa 1.03
#11 FK Spartak Varna 0.85
#12 Slavia Sofia 0.80
#13 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.80
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 0.63
League avg
1.38
Total
15.84 vs 22 actual pts

What the xG says

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia's underlying numbers are among the best in Parva Liga (Bulgaria). They rank #5 for xG difference at +0.35 per match, from about average shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 19 goals are 2.43 above 16.57 xG, while 22 points are 6.16 above 15.84 xPts.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.52 xG from penalties
19 16.57 +2.43 scored 2.43 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
10 13.09 -3.09 conceded 3.09 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
22 15.84 +6.16 6.16 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia are 2.43 goals above their xG after 10 matches. The gap was widest at +4.36, against Lokomotiv Plovdiv on Fri 28/08.

Goals
19
xG
16.57
Gap
+2.43
Fri 17/07 Sat 25/07 Fri 31/07 Sat 08/08 Fri 14/08 Sun 23/08 Fri 28/08 Sat 05/09 Sat 12/09 Fri 18/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 -0.80 +0.31 +1.26 +1.72 +4.19 +3.16 +4.36 +3.01 +2.39 +2.43 -0.80 +1.11 +0.95 +0.46 +2.47 -1.03 +1.20 -1.35 -0.62 +0.04 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Fri 17/07 FK Spartak Varna 2 2.80 -0.80 -0.80
Sat 25/07 Botev Vratsa 2 0.89 +1.11 +0.31
Fri 31/07 Arda Kardzhali 2 1.05 +0.95 +1.26
Sat 08/08 Lokomotiv Sofia 3 2.54 +0.46 +1.72
Fri 14/08 Cherno More Varna 4 1.53 +2.47 +4.19
Sun 23/08 FK Septemvri Sofia 0 1.03 -1.03 +3.16
Fri 28/08 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 0.80 +1.20 +4.36
Sat 05/09 Levski Sofia 0 1.35 -1.35 +3.01
Sat 12/09 FK Dunav Ruse 2 2.62 -0.62 +2.39
Fri 18/09 Slavia Sofia 2 1.96 +0.04 +2.43

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking → Compare with every club in Europe →

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia xG trend

Current form +0.27 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 5 of 10 matches. The worst was against Arda Kardzhali on Fri 31/07 (-0.79).

npxG · last 6
1.42
npxGA · last 6
1.15
-1 0 +1 +2 +1.39 Fri 17/07 -0.27 Sat 25/07 -0.79 Fri 31/07 +0.90 Sat 08/08 +0.26 Fri 14/08 +0.54 Sun 23/08 -0.08 Fri 28/08 -0.36 Sat 05/09 +1.74 Sat 12/09 -0.47 Fri 18/09 +0.29 season avg
FC CSKA 1948 Sofia: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Fri 17/07 FK Spartak Varna 2.04 0.65 +1.39 +1.39
Sat 25/07 Botev Vratsa 0.89 1.16 -0.27 +0.56
Fri 31/07 Arda Kardzhali 1.05 1.84 -0.79 +0.11
Sat 08/08 Lokomotiv Sofia 2.54 1.64 +0.90 +0.31
Fri 14/08 Cherno More Varna 1.53 1.27 +0.26 +0.30
Sun 23/08 FK Septemvri Sofia 1.03 0.49 +0.54 +0.34
Fri 28/08 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.80 0.88 -0.08 +0.28
Sat 05/09 Levski Sofia 1.35 1.71 -0.36 +0.20
Sat 12/09 FK Dunav Ruse 2.62 0.88 +1.74 +0.37
Fri 18/09 Slavia Sofia 1.20 1.67 -0.47 +0.29

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.51 npxG and 1.22 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 11 hardest of 14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
−0.17 xG vs league average
Over 10 league matches
Last 5
number 10 hardest of 14 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)
−0.11 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.17 xG vs league average · over 10 matches · number 11 hardest of 14

  1. Slavia Sofia Away −0.65
  2. FK Dunav Ruse Home −0.39
  3. Levski Sofia Away +0.67
  4. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Home −0.02
  5. FK Septemvri Sofia Away −0.17
  6. Cherno More Varna Home −0.12
  7. Lokomotiv Sofia Away −0.37
  8. Arda Kardzhali Home +0.15
  9. Botev Vratsa Home −0.24
  10. FK Spartak Varna Away −0.59

Last 5

−0.11 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 10 hardest of 14

  1. Slavia Sofia Away −0.65
  2. FK Dunav Ruse Home −0.39
  3. Levski Sofia Away +0.67
  4. Lokomotiv Plovdiv Home −0.02
  5. FK Septemvri Sofia Away −0.17

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia shots and chance quality

Average volume, average quality. FC CSKA 1948 Sofia take 12.4 shots a match (league 11.5) at 0.12 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #6 in Parva Liga (Bulgaria) for volume and #5 for quality. 60% of their shots come from inside the box (league 58%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.4 shots per match
#6/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 CSKA Sofia 19.1
#2 Levski Sofia 16.3
#3 Ludogorets 13.5
#4 Botev Plovdiv 12.9
#5 Arda Kardzhali 12.6
#6 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 12.4
#7 Cherno More Varna 11.4
#8 Lokomotiv Sofia 10.8
#9 FK Septemvri Sofia 9.8
#10 Botev Vratsa 8.6
=11 FK Dunav Ruse 8.5
=11 FK Spartak Varna 8.5
=11 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 8.5
#14 Slavia Sofia 6.7
League avg
11.5
Total
124 shots from 10 matches
Chance quality
0.12 npxG per shot
#5/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Ludogorets 0.17
#2 Levski Sofia 0.13
#3 Arda Kardzhali 0.12
#4 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.12
#5 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.12
#6 FK Dunav Ruse 0.12
#7 Botev Plovdiv 0.11
#8 FK Spartak Varna 0.11
#9 Botev Vratsa 0.11
#10 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.11
#11 CSKA Sofia 0.10
#12 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#13 Cherno More Varna 0.09
#14 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.09
League avg
0.12
Total
15.05 npxG from 124 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.4 shots per match
#9/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Levski Sofia 7.0
#2 CSKA Sofia 8.1
#3 Ludogorets 9.3
#4 FK Septemvri Sofia 9.6
#5 Botev Vratsa 9.9
#6 Cherno More Varna 10.0
#7 Arda Kardzhali 10.1
#8 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 10.8
#9 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 11.4
#10 Botev Plovdiv 11.7
#11 FK Spartak Varna 14.9
#12 Lokomotiv Sofia 15.0
#13 Slavia Sofia 15.3
#14 FK Dunav Ruse 18.7
League avg
11.5
Total
114 shots allowed from 10 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#7/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Parva Liga (Bulgaria), best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Botev Plovdiv 0.09
#2 Levski Sofia 0.09
#3 Slavia Sofia 0.10
#4 Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0.10
#5 Arda Kardzhali 0.10
#6 CSKA Sofia 0.11
#7 FC CSKA 1948 Sofia 0.11
#8 Ludogorets 0.11
#9 FK Dunav Ruse 0.12
#10 Lokomotiv Sofia 0.13
#11 FK Spartak Varna 0.13
#12 Cherno More Varna 0.14
#13 FK Septemvri Sofia 0.14
#14 Botev Vratsa 0.15
League avg
0.12
Total
12.19 npxGA from 114 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

60% inside the box

League avg 58%

From 74 of 124 shots over 10 matches

Shots allowed, location

60% allowed inside the box

League avg 58%

From 68 of 114 shots allowed over 10 matches

How the shot figures are made →

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia home and away xG

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 5 5
xG / match 1.38 1.94
xGA / match 1.21 1.41
xGD / match +0.17 +0.52
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.44 1.73

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every FC CSKA 1948 Sofia match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

At home this season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.38
xGA / match
1.21
xGD / match
+0.17
Points
15 of 15
  1. Sat 12/09 FK Dunav Ruse H Best underlying xG 2.62 xGA 0.88 xGD +1.74
  2. Fri 28/08 Lokomotiv Plovdiv H xG 0.80 xGA 0.88 xGD -0.08
  3. Fri 14/08 Cherno More Varna H xG 1.53 xGA 1.27 xGD +0.26
  4. Fri 31/07 Arda Kardzhali H Weakest underlying xG 1.05 xGA 1.84 xGD -0.79
  5. Sat 25/07 Botev Vratsa H xG 0.89 xGA 1.16 xGD -0.27

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

FC CSKA 1948 Sofia in Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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