Lokomotiv Plovdiv 0:0 Slavia Sofia: xG & match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Monday, 26/10/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Parva Liga (Bulgaria)

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Home 0.53 xG

Slavia Sofia Away 0.52 xG

00 The chances were evenly matched

Lokomotiv Plovdiv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Lokomotiv Plovdiv's attack: 0.53 xG against 1.42 projected (−0.89). Slavia Sofia produced 0.52 xG against 0.94 projected (−0.42).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 47%
Draw: 31% What happened
Slavia Sofia: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.42 0.53 -0.89

Slavia Sofia 0.94 0.52 -0.42

Lokomotiv Plovdiv produced 0.89 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lokomotiv Plovdiv Slavia Sofia

Shots: 9; 6
On target: 1; 2
Inside the box: 2; 3
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.09

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lokomotiv Plovdiv

0.99 xG created 1.21 xGA

L 1.22 created, 0.87 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
L 0.88 created, 0.80 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
W 0.51 created, 0.88 conceded against Cherno More Varna
L 0.87 created, 1.05 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
D 0.62 created, 1.27 conceded against CSKA Sofia
D 1.84 created, 2.39 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia

Slavia Sofia

1.32 xG created 1.58 xGA

D 0.46 created, 0.95 conceded against FK Septemvri Sofia
L 0.32 created, 2.34 conceded against Levski Sofia
W 3.51 created, 0.93 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
D 0.63 created, 0.94 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
L 2.43 created, 1.96 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
L 0.58 created, 2.35 conceded against Botev Plovdiv

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 qualified edges flagged0 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lokomotiv Plovdiv against Slavia Sofia before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	2.10	+9.8%	Lost
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals	2.50	+6.7%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.44	+5.0%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.40	+2.7%	Lost
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score	1.30	+2.2%	Lost
Slavia Sofia to score	1.57	+0.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Plovdiv	46.6%	44.2%	+2.3 pp	2.15
Draw	31.4%	30.0%	+1.5 pp	3.18
Slavia Sofia	22.0%	25.8%	−3.8 pp	4.55

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lokomotiv Plovdiv to score	78.6%	72.3%	+6.3 pp	1.27
Lokomotiv Plovdiv not to score	21.4%	27.7%	−6.3 pp	4.68
Slavia Sofia to score	64.1%	58.9%	+5.2 pp	1.56
Slavia Sofia not to score	35.9%	41.1%	−5.2 pp	2.79
Both teams to score	52.3%	44.3%	+8.0 pp	1.91
Both teams not to score	47.7%	55.7%	−8.0 pp	2.10
Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2+ goals	42.7%	37.5%	+5.2 pp	2.34
Lokomotiv Plovdiv at most 1 goal	57.3%	62.5%	−5.2 pp	1.74
Slavia Sofia 2+ goals	24.0%	23.4%	+0.6 pp	4.16
Slavia Sofia at most 1 goal	76.0%	76.6%	−0.6 pp	1.32
Over 1.5 goals	72.7%	64.5%	+8.2 pp	1.37
Under 1.5 goals	27.3%	35.5%	−8.2 pp	3.67
Over 2.5 goals	42.8%	39.0%	+3.8 pp	2.34
Under 2.5 goals	57.2%	61.0%	−3.8 pp	1.75

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sample: 20 matches
Slavia Sofia sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.