Monday, 14/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeLudogorets 2:1 FK Septemvri Sofia
Ludogorets were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 62%. They won 2–1.
The model against the result
- Ludogorets
- 62% What happened
- Draw
- 27%
- FK Septemvri Sofia
- 11%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
2.42 xG created 1.02 xGA
- W 0.96 created, 1.91 conceded against Lokomotiv Plovdiv
- W 2.12 created, 0.81 conceded against FK Dunav Ruse
- W 3.72 created, 1.17 conceded against Botev Vratsa
- W 1.50 created, 0.68 conceded against Cherno More Varna
- W 2.58 created, 0.81 conceded against Botev Plovdiv
- W 3.62 created, 0.75 conceded against Lokomotiv Sofia
0.89 xG created 1.04 xGA
- D 1.39 created, 0.66 conceded against Arda Kardzhali
- L 0.12 created, 2.38 conceded against Levski Sofia
- W 1.04 created, 0.73 conceded against FK Spartak Varna
- W 0.49 created, 1.03 conceded against FC CSKA 1948 Sofia
- D 0.95 created, 0.46 conceded against Slavia Sofia
- L 1.37 created, 0.99 conceded against Botev Vratsa
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets not to score | 11.00 | +79.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 6.50 | +75.6% | Lost |
| Ludogorets at most 1 goal | 3.40 | +64.8% | Lost |
| FK Septemvri Sofia to win | 13.00 | +48.6% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.00 | +40.9% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.35 | +36.3% | Lost |
| FK Septemvri Sofia to score | 2.10 | +8.1% | Won |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals | 8.00 | +4.0% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.25 | +0.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | 61.5% | 78.6% | −17.0 pp | 1.62 |
| Draw | 27.0% | 14.3% | +12.7 pp | 3.70 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia | 11.4% | 7.1% | +4.3 pp | 8.75 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets to score | 83.7% | 91.3% | −7.6 pp | 1.19 |
| Ludogorets not to score | 16.3% | 8.7% | +7.6 pp | 6.13 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia to score | 51.5% | 44.3% | +7.2 pp | 1.94 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia not to score | 48.5% | 55.7% | −7.2 pp | 2.06 |
| Both teams to score | 44.7% | 41.1% | +3.6 pp | 2.24 |
| Both teams not to score | 55.3% | 58.9% | −3.6 pp | 1.81 |
| Ludogorets 2+ goals | 51.5% | 72.3% | −20.8 pp | 1.94 |
| Ludogorets at most 1 goal | 48.5% | 27.7% | +20.8 pp | 2.06 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia 2+ goals | 13.0% | 11.9% | +1.1 pp | 7.69 |
| FK Septemvri Sofia at most 1 goal | 87.0% | 88.1% | −1.1 pp | 1.15 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.8% | 81.1% | −9.3 pp | 1.39 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 28.2% | 18.9% | +9.3 pp | 3.55 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.0% | 59.9% | −17.9 pp | 2.38 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.0% | 40.1% | +17.9 pp | 1.72 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Ludogorets sample
- 20 matches
- FK Septemvri Sofia sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 11 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 11 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.