Friday, 28/08/2026 at 21:00
Full timeDrogheda United 2:3 Dundalk FC
Dundalk FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Dundalk FC's attack: 3.04 xG against 1.56 projected (+1.48). Drogheda United produced 1.89 xG against 1.44 projected (+0.45).
The model against the result
- Drogheda United
- 33%
- Draw
- 28%
- Dundalk FC
- 39% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Dundalk FC produced 1.48 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 15
- On target
- 3
- 4
- Inside the box
- 11
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.20
Recent form
1.08 xG created 1.61 xGA
- L 2.28 created, 1.78 conceded against Bohemian FC
- W 1.25 created, 1.44 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 1.03 created, 1.69 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- D 0.94 created, 0.76 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- D 0.60 created, 2.18 conceded against Galway United
- L 0.39 created, 1.83 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
1.58 xG created 1.66 xGA
- L 0.95 created, 1.93 conceded against Shelbourne
- L 1.44 created, 1.25 conceded against Drogheda United
- D 1.43 created, 1.98 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- D 1.74 created, 1.35 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- L 1.72 created, 2.66 conceded against Shamrock Rovers
- L 2.21 created, 0.79 conceded against Galway United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged6 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United 2+ goals | 2.63 | +13.4% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.90 | +13.0% | Won |
| Drogheda United to score | 1.33 | +5.0% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +5.0% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +3.6% | Won |
| Drogheda United to win | 3.10 | +1.4% | Lost |
| Dundalk FC 2+ goals | 2.10 | +0.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United | 32.7% | 29.3% | +3.4 pp | 3.06 |
| Draw | 28.5% | 28.4% | +0.1 pp | 3.51 |
| Dundalk FC | 38.8% | 42.3% | −3.5 pp | 2.58 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drogheda United to score | 78.8% | 70.9% | +7.9 pp | 1.27 |
| Drogheda United not to score | 21.2% | 29.1% | −7.9 pp | 4.71 |
| Dundalk FC to score | 81.7% | 76.6% | +5.1 pp | 1.22 |
| Dundalk FC not to score | 18.3% | 23.4% | −5.1 pp | 5.47 |
| Both teams to score | 65.9% | 58.9% | +7.0 pp | 1.52 |
| Both teams not to score | 34.1% | 41.1% | −7.0 pp | 2.94 |
| Drogheda United 2+ goals | 43.2% | 35.5% | +7.7 pp | 2.32 |
| Drogheda United at most 1 goal | 56.8% | 64.5% | −7.7 pp | 1.76 |
| Dundalk FC 2+ goals | 47.8% | 44.3% | +3.6 pp | 2.09 |
| Dundalk FC at most 1 goal | 52.2% | 55.7% | −3.6 pp | 1.92 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | 75.0% | +9.0 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.0% | 25.0% | −9.0 pp | 6.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 50.0% | +9.5 pp | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 50.0% | −9.5 pp | 2.47 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Drogheda United sample
- 20 matches
- Dundalk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 10 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 10 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.