Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:45
Full timeGalway United 2:3 Bohemian FC
Bohemian FC were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 3–2. The biggest difference was Bohemian FC's attack: 2.77 xG against 1.71 projected (+1.06). Galway United produced 1.84 xG against 1.35 projected (+0.49).
The model against the result
- Galway United
- 28%
- Draw
- 28%
- Bohemian FC
- 45% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Bohemian FC produced 1.06 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 35
- On target
- 5
- 8
- Inside the box
- 12
- 21
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.08
Recent form
1.22 xG created 1.60 xGA
- W 2.28 created, 1.67 conceded against Sligo Rovers
- D 1.27 created, 0.62 conceded against Waterford FC
- D 0.24 created, 2.23 conceded against Bohemian FC
- D 2.18 created, 0.60 conceded against Drogheda United
- W 0.79 created, 2.21 conceded against Dundalk FC
- D 0.54 created, 2.26 conceded against Shelbourne
1.83 xG created 1.14 xGA
- W 2.14 created, 1.14 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
- W 1.78 created, 2.28 conceded against Drogheda United
- D 2.23 created, 0.24 conceded against Galway United
- L 1.04 created, 1.66 conceded against Waterford FC
- W 2.32 created, 1.39 conceded against Derry City
- W 1.48 created, 0.15 conceded against Sligo Rovers
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 opportunities flagged5 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United 2+ goals | 3.00 | +19.9% | Won |
| Galway United to win | 3.90 | +8.2% | Lost |
| Galway United to score | 1.40 | +7.5% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +7.0% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +1.7% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | +1.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United | 27.8% | 23.2% | +4.6 pp | 3.60 |
| Draw | 27.7% | 25.1% | +2.6 pp | 3.61 |
| Bohemian FC | 44.6% | 51.7% | −7.1 pp | 2.24 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United to score | 76.8% | 66.3% | +10.5 pp | 1.30 |
| Galway United not to score | 23.2% | 33.7% | −10.5 pp | 4.30 |
| Bohemian FC to score | 84.4% | 82.8% | +1.6 pp | 1.19 |
| Bohemian FC not to score | 15.6% | 17.2% | −1.6 pp | 6.40 |
| Both teams to score | 66.3% | 57.7% | +8.6 pp | 1.51 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.7% | 42.3% | −8.6 pp | 2.97 |
| Galway United 2+ goals | 40.0% | 31.3% | +8.7 pp | 2.50 |
| Galway United at most 1 goal | 60.0% | 68.7% | −8.7 pp | 1.67 |
| Bohemian FC 2+ goals | 52.8% | 53.7% | −0.9 pp | 1.89 |
| Bohemian FC at most 1 goal | 47.2% | 46.3% | +0.9 pp | 2.12 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.8% | 78.3% | +6.5 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.2% | 21.7% | −6.5 pp | 6.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.8% | 56.3% | +4.5 pp | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.2% | 43.7% | −4.5 pp | 2.55 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Galway United sample
- 20 matches
- Bohemian FC sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 9 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.