Galway United 1:1 Shelbourne: xG & match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Premier Division (Ireland)

Galway United Home 0.54 xG

Shelbourne Away 2.26 xG

11 Shelbourne had the better chances, but it finished level

Galway United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Galway United's attack: 0.54 xG against 1.44 projected (−0.90). Shelbourne produced 2.26 xG against 1.37 projected (+0.89).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Galway United: 37%
Draw: 30% What happened
Shelbourne: 34%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Galway United 1.44 0.54 -0.90

Shelbourne 1.37 2.26 +0.89

Galway United produced 0.90 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Galway United Shelbourne

Shots: 13; 17
On target: 5; 6
Inside the box: 5; 14
xG per shot: 0.04; 0.13

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Galway United

1.21 xG created 1.57 xGA

L 0.48 created, 2.06 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic
W 2.28 created, 1.67 conceded against Sligo Rovers
D 1.27 created, 0.62 conceded against Waterford FC
D 0.24 created, 2.23 conceded against Bohemian FC
D 2.18 created, 0.60 conceded against Drogheda United
W 0.79 created, 2.21 conceded against Dundalk FC

Shelbourne

1.28 xG created 1.66 xGA

D 1.65 created, 1.12 conceded against Drogheda United
L 0.38 created, 1.25 conceded against Bohemian FC
D 1.12 created, 1.81 conceded against Sligo Rovers
W 1.93 created, 0.95 conceded against Dundalk FC
L 1.47 created, 1.67 conceded against Waterford FC
L 1.12 created, 3.15 conceded against St. Patrick's Athletic

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Galway United: 0 won · 4 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged2 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Galway United against Shelbourne before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.62	+1.2%	Won
Draw	3.40	+0.9%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Galway United	36.7%	37.3%	−0.6 pp	2.73
Draw	29.7%	26.9%	+2.8 pp	3.37
Shelbourne	33.6%	35.8%	−2.2 pp	2.97

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Galway United to score	78.8%	75.0%	+3.8 pp	1.27
Galway United not to score	21.2%	25.0%	−3.8 pp	4.71
Shelbourne to score	77.4%	75.0%	+2.4 pp	1.29
Shelbourne not to score	22.6%	25.0%	−2.4 pp	4.42
Both teams to score	62.6%	57.7%	+5.0 pp	1.60
Both teams not to score	37.4%	42.3%	−5.0 pp	2.68
Galway United 2+ goals	43.2%	42.3%	+0.8 pp	2.32
Galway United at most 1 goal	56.8%	57.7%	−0.8 pp	1.76
Shelbourne 2+ goals	40.8%	41.1%	−0.3 pp	2.45
Shelbourne at most 1 goal	59.2%	58.9%	+0.3 pp	1.69
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	76.6%	+4.5 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	23.4%	−4.5 pp	5.28
Over 2.5 goals	54.7%	52.6%	+2.1 pp	1.83
Under 2.5 goals	45.3%	47.4%	−2.1 pp	2.21

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Galway United sample: 20 matches
Shelbourne sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.