Friday, 04/09/2026 at 21:00
Kicked offShamrock Rovers – Bohemian FC
Model updated 4 September, 10:12 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Shamrock Rovers
- 39%
- Draw
- 30%
- Bohemian FC
- 31%
| Shamrock Rovers | Draw | Bohemian FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.54 | 3.38 | 3.22 |
- Total goals
- 2.79
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Shamrock Rovers
39% Shamrock Rovers to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 4th
- Shamrock Rovers attack v Bohemian FC defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 1st
- Shamrock Rovers defence v Bohemian FC attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.20 vs +0.69
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.48 – 1.31
- Shamrock Rovers v Bohemian FC
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Shamrock Rovers | Bohemian FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.41 · 4th | (better) 1.63 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.14 · 3rd | (better) 1.10 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | +0.27 · 3rd | (better) +0.53 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 1.58 · 3rd | (better) 1.75 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.20 | (better) +0.69 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Shamrock Rovers sample
- 20 matches
- Bohemian FC sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Shamrock Rovers
- 15 matches
- Away xG sample · Bohemian FC
- 14 matches
- Computed
- Friday, 04/09/2026 at 10:12
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.