Not confirmed yet: the date can still move, and the kickoff time is set nearer the match.
Bournemouth – Newcastle United
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Bournemouth
- 56%
- Draw
- 26%
- Newcastle United
- 18%
| Bournemouth | Draw | Newcastle United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.80 | 3.83 | 5.49 |
- Total goals
- 2.92
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.
Why the model leans Bournemouth
56% Bournemouth to win
- Attack
- 9th vs 20th
- Bournemouth attack v Newcastle United defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 19th
- Bournemouth defence v Newcastle United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.17 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.87 – 1.06
- Bournemouth v Newcastle United
Squad news
Bournemouth
7 listed-
Justin Kluivert 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Junior Kroupi 0% chance
Midfielder · Foot injury - Expected back 7 Nov
-
Will Dennis 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Has joined MK Dons permanently
-
Veljko Milosavljevic 0% chance
Defender · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Julián Araujo Zúñiga 0% chance
Defender · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Amine Adli 0% chance
Midfielder · Calf injury - Unknown return date
-
Enes Ünal 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Getafe permanently
Newcastle United
12 listed-
Anthony Elanga 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Amar Dedic 0% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Dan Burn 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Nick Woltemade 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sean Neave 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Wolves on loan for the rest of the season
-
William Osula 0% chance
Forward · Foot injury - Unknown return date
-
Jacob Ramsey 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Leo Shahar 0% chance
Defender · has joined Arouca on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Alex Murphy 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joelinton 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Ewen Jaouen 50% chance
Goalkeeper · Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Tino Livramento 75% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Bournemouth | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.34 · 14th | 1.07 · 17th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.39 · 7th | 1.83 · 18th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.05 · 11th | -0.76 · 19th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.39 · 12th | 0.82 · 20th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) -0.17 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Bournemouth clean sheet
- 32%
- Bournemouth 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 42%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 2:1
- 11.7%
- 2:0
- 9.4%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Bournemouth sample
- 20 matches
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Bournemouth
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Newcastle United
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.