Monday, 02/11/2026 at 21:00
Full timeNewcastle United 0:1 Everton
Newcastle United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. Everton won 1–0. The biggest difference was Everton's attack: 2.15 xG against 1.39 projected (+0.76).
Goals
- 49' Thierno Barry Everton · 0.96 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Newcastle United
- 36%
- Draw
- 30%
- Everton
- 34% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Everton produced 0.76 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 16
- On target
- 2
- 5
- Inside the box
- 7
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.14
- Open play xG
- 1.33
- 0.62
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 1.62
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.47 for Newcastle United and 2.27 for Everton.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
33 shots · 3.70 xG
Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.
- Newcastle United
- Everton
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.15 xG created 1.61 xGA
- D 0.71 created, 1.37 conceded against Bournemouth
- L 0.88 created, 2.08 conceded against Leeds United
- W 1.44 created, 1.59 conceded against Hull City
- L 1.84 created, 1.43 conceded against Coventry City
- L 1.06 created, 1.50 conceded against Aston Villa
- W 0.98 created, 1.69 conceded against Crystal Palace
1.17 xG created 1.24 xGA
- D 1.01 created, 0.69 conceded against Manchester United
- D 1.11 created, 0.69 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- W 2.24 created, 1.44 conceded against Ipswich Town
- D 1.71 created, 1.33 conceded against Hull City
- L 0.45 created, 1.54 conceded against Chelsea
- L 0.48 created, 1.77 conceded against Arsenal
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 qualified edges flagged3 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton to win | 3.25 | +10.5% | Won |
| Newcastle United at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +4.0% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +3.5% | Lost |
| Everton to score | 1.29 | +0.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 36.4% | 43.9% | −7.5 pp | 2.75 |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.0% | +2.6 pp | 3.38 |
| Everton | 34.0% | 29.1% | +4.9 pp | 2.94 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United to score | 78.8% | 79.2% | −0.4 pp | 1.27 |
| Newcastle United not to score | 21.2% | 20.8% | +0.4 pp | 4.72 |
| Everton to score | 77.8% | 73.1% | +4.7 pp | 1.29 |
| Everton not to score | 22.2% | 26.9% | −4.7 pp | 4.50 |
| Both teams to score | 63.0% | 58.9% | +4.1 pp | 1.59 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.0% | 41.1% | −4.1 pp | 2.70 |
| Newcastle United 2+ goals | 43.3% | 50.0% | −6.7 pp | 2.31 |
| Newcastle United at most 1 goal | 56.7% | 50.0% | +6.7 pp | 1.76 |
| Everton 2+ goals | 41.4% | 39.2% | +2.2 pp | 2.41 |
| Everton at most 1 goal | 58.6% | 60.8% | −2.2 pp | 1.71 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.4% | 78.9% | +2.4 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.6% | 21.1% | −2.4 pp | 5.37 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.2% | 56.9% | −1.7 pp | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 43.1% | +1.7 pp | 2.23 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Everton sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 9 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.