Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 18:30
13d 14h to kick-offNewcastle United – Aston Villa
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Newcastle United
- 38%
- Draw
- 30%
- Aston Villa
- 33%
| Newcastle United | Draw | Aston Villa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.65 | 3.39 | 3.06 |
- Total goals
- 2.82
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Newcastle United
38% Newcastle United to win
- Attack
- 19th vs 18th
- Newcastle United attack v Aston Villa defence
- Defence
- 20th vs 15th
- Newcastle United defence v Aston Villa attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.89 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.47 – 1.36
- Newcastle United v Aston Villa
Squad news
Newcastle United
12 listed-
Anthony Elanga 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Amar Dedic 0% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Dan Burn 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
-
Nick Woltemade 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Juventus on loan for the rest of the season
-
Sean Neave 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Wolves on loan for the rest of the season
-
William Osula 0% chance
Forward · Foot injury - Unknown return date
-
Jacob Ramsey 0% chance
Midfielder · Thigh injury - Unknown return date
-
Leo Shahar 0% chance
Defender · has joined Arouca on loan for the rest of the seaon.
-
Alex Murphy 0% chance
Defender · Has joined FC Kaiserslautern on loan for the rest of the season
-
Joelinton 0% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Ewen Jaouen 50% chance
Goalkeeper · Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
-
Tino Livramento 75% chance
Defender · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Aston Villa
13 listed-
Ollie Watkins 0% chance
Forward · Has joined Al Hilal permanently
-
Ian Maatsen 0% chance
Defender · Ankle injury - Unknown return date
-
Pau Torres 0% chance
Defender · Hamstring injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Brian Madjo 0% chance
Forward · Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
-
Leon Bailey 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Olympiakos permanently
-
Marco Bizot 0% chance
Goalkeeper · Back injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Kosta Nedeljkovic 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Rangers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Luka Lynch 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Oxford United on loan until January
-
Amadou Onana 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Unknown return date
-
Samuel Iling-Junior 0% chance
Midfielder · Has joined Bolton Wanderers on loan for the rest of the season
-
Leon Goretzka 0% chance
Midfielder · Knee injury - Expected back 10 Oct
-
Lucas Digne 0% chance
Defender · Has joined Paris Saint-Germain permanently
-
Alysson 75% chance
Midfielder · Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
The status, the chance of playing and the note beside each name are Fantasy Premier League's own, and it covers this competition only. Nothing above this section knows about any of it: a rating fitted over recent matches describes the side that played them.
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Newcastle United | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.07 · 17th | 0.91 · 20th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.83 · 18th | 1.84 · 19th |
| xGD / match | (better) -0.76 · 19th | -0.94 · 20th |
| xPts / match | 0.82 · 20th | (better) 0.90 · 18th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.89 | (better) -0.71 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Newcastle United clean sheet
- 23%
- Newcastle United 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Aston Villa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Newcastle United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Aston Villa
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.