Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeFulham 2:3 Crystal Palace
Fulham were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Crystal Palace won 3–2. The biggest difference was Fulham's attack: 3.14 xG against 1.43 projected (+1.71). Crystal Palace produced 1.97 xG against 1.16 projected (+0.81).
Goals
- 11' Joshua King Fulham · 0.31 xG chance 1–0
- 35' Tyrick Mitchell Crystal Palace · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
- 42' César Palacios Fulham · 0.31 xG chance 2–1
- 54' Tyrick Mitchell Crystal Palace · 0.66 xG chance 2–2
- 77' Ben Chilwell Crystal Palace · 0.15 xG chance 2–3
The model against the result
- Fulham
- 42%
- Draw
- 31%
- Crystal Palace
- 28% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Fulham produced 1.71 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 25
- 10
- On target
- 6
- 5
- Inside the box
- 22
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.20
- Open play xG
- 2.69
- 1.93
- Set-piece xG
- 0.47
- 0.04
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.15 for Fulham.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 5.13 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Fulham
- Crystal Palace
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.24 xG created 1.63 xGA
1.43 xG created 1.80 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +1.3% | Won |
| Draw | 3.30 | +1.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 41.6% | 43.2% | −1.7 pp | 2.41 |
| Draw | 30.7% | 28.8% | +1.8 pp | 3.26 |
| Crystal Palace | 27.8% | 28.0% | −0.2 pp | 3.60 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham to score | 78.7% | 76.6% | +2.1 pp | 1.27 |
| Fulham not to score | 21.3% | 23.4% | −2.1 pp | 4.69 |
| Crystal Palace to score | 71.3% | 70.9% | +0.4 pp | 1.40 |
| Crystal Palace not to score | 28.7% | 29.1% | −0.4 pp | 3.48 |
| Both teams to score | 57.9% | 53.3% | +4.5 pp | 1.73 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.1% | 46.7% | −4.5 pp | 2.37 |
| Fulham 2+ goals | 43.0% | 44.3% | −1.2 pp | 2.32 |
| Fulham at most 1 goal | 57.0% | 55.7% | +1.2 pp | 1.76 |
| Crystal Palace 2+ goals | 32.5% | 35.5% | −3.0 pp | 3.08 |
| Crystal Palace at most 1 goal | 67.5% | 64.5% | +3.0 pp | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.2% | 74.5% | +2.7 pp | 1.30 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.8% | 25.5% | −2.7 pp | 4.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.0% | 50.0% | −1.0 pp | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51.0% | 50.0% | +1.0 pp | 1.96 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Fulham sample
- 20 matches
- Crystal Palace sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.