Crystal Palace 1:4 Manchester City: xG & match report · Premier League

Friday, 28/08/2026 at 21:00

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Crystal Palace Home 0.66 xG · 10 shots

Manchester City Away 2.21 xG · 18 shots

14 The scoreline reflected the chances

Manchester City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was Manchester City's attack: 2.21 xG against 1.44 projected (+0.77). Crystal Palace produced 0.66 xG against 1.25 projected (−0.59).

Goals

17' Erling Haaland Manchester City · 0.09 xG chance 0–1
54' Rayan Cherki Manchester City · 0.36 xG chance 0–2
56' Gianluigi Donnarumma (o.g.) Crystal Palace · 0.31 xG chance 1–2
59' Rayan Cherki Manchester City · 0.02 xG chance 1–3
84' Erling Haaland Manchester City · 0.08 xG chance 1–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Crystal Palace: 30%
Draw: 30%
Manchester City: 40% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Crystal Palace 1.25 0.66 -0.59

Manchester City 1.44 2.21 +0.77

Manchester City produced 0.77 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Crystal Palace Manchester City

Shots: 10; 18
On target: 2; 9
Inside the box: 6; 13
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.37; 1.26
Set-piece xG: 0.51; 0.20
Penalties: —; —

Crystal Palace's shots add up to 0.88 xG and Manchester City's to 1.46; the published figures are 0.66 and 2.21.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 2.34 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Crystal Palace
Manchester City
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Crystal Palace

1.47 xG created 1.78 xGA

L 0.89 created, 2.08 conceded against Bournemouth
D 2.56 created, 1.59 conceded against Everton
L 0.73 created, 1.66 conceded against Manchester City
D 1.72 created, 1.71 conceded against Brentford
L 0.98 created, 2.53 conceded against Arsenal
L 1.96 created, 1.12 conceded against Everton

Manchester City

1.88 xG created 1.39 xGA

D 1.54 created, 2.72 conceded against Everton
W 2.98 created, 0.24 conceded against Brentford
W 1.66 created, 0.73 conceded against Crystal Palace
D 1.48 created, 2.25 conceded against Bournemouth
L 1.34 created, 1.77 conceded against Aston Villa
W 2.25 created, 0.65 conceded against Bournemouth

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Crystal Palace: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

8 opportunities flagged2 won6 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Crystal Palace against Manchester City before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Crystal Palace to win	5.00	+50.7%	Lost
Manchester City not to score	6.00	+26.1%	Lost
Crystal Palace 2+ goals	3.40	+23.1%	Lost
Manchester City at most 1 goal	2.10	+18.6%	Lost
Draw	3.90	+18.0%	Lost
Crystal Palace to score	1.50	+11.4%	Won
Both teams to score	1.70	+2.7%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+1.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Crystal Palace	30.1%	18.9%	+11.2 pp	3.32
Draw	30.2%	24.3%	+6.0 pp	3.31
Manchester City	39.6%	56.8%	−17.2 pp	2.52

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Crystal Palace to score	74.3%	62.5%	+11.8 pp	1.35
Crystal Palace not to score	25.7%	37.5%	−11.8 pp	3.89
Manchester City to score	79.0%	84.2%	−5.2 pp	1.27
Manchester City not to score	21.0%	15.8%	+5.2 pp	4.76
Both teams to score	60.4%	54.7%	+5.8 pp	1.66
Both teams not to score	39.6%	45.3%	−5.8 pp	2.53
Crystal Palace 2+ goals	36.2%	27.7%	+8.6 pp	2.76
Crystal Palace at most 1 goal	63.8%	72.3%	−8.6 pp	1.57
Manchester City 2+ goals	43.5%	55.7%	−12.2 pp	2.30
Manchester City at most 1 goal	56.5%	44.3%	+12.2 pp	1.77
Over 1.5 goals	79.2%	78.0%	+1.2 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.8%	22.0%	−1.2 pp	4.81
Over 2.5 goals	51.8%	54.9%	−3.0 pp	1.93
Under 2.5 goals	48.2%	45.1%	+3.0 pp	2.08

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Crystal Palace sample: 20 matches
Manchester City sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.