Manchester United 3:2 Nottingham Forest: xG & match report · Premier League

Sunday, 17/05/2026 at 13:30

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Manchester United Home 4.57 xG · 29 shots

Nottingham Forest Away 1.88 xG · 11 shots

32 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

6' Luke Shaw Manchester United · 0.09 xG chance 1–0
53' Morato Nottingham Forest · 0.39 xG chance 1–1
55' Matheus Cunha Manchester United · 0.21 xG chance 2–1
76' Bryan Mbeumo Manchester United · 0.54 xG chance 3–1
78' Morgan Gibbs-White Nottingham Forest · 0.16 xG chance 3–2

The shots behind it

Manchester United Nottingham Forest

Shots: 29; 11
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 21; 11
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.16
Open play xG: 4.00; 1.02
Set-piece xG: 0.18; 0.69
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 4.19 for Manchester United and 1.75 for Nottingham Forest.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

40 shots · 5.89 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Manchester United

1.26 xG created 1.55 xGA

D 1.77 created, 1.57 conceded against Bournemouth
L 1.27 created, 2.57 conceded against Leeds United
W 0.29 created, 1.57 conceded against Chelsea
W 1.27 created, 1.43 conceded against Brentford
W 2.34 created, 0.89 conceded against Liverpool
D 0.62 created, 1.25 conceded against Sunderland

Nottingham Forest

1.35 xG created 1.14 xGA

W 1.48 created, 1.14 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
D 1.15 created, 1.02 conceded against Aston Villa
W 1.19 created, 0.36 conceded against Burnley
W 1.10 created, 0.70 conceded against Sunderland
W 2.05 created, 2.15 conceded against Chelsea
D 1.10 created, 1.48 conceded against Newcastle United

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Manchester United: 0 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Nottingham Forest 2:2 Manchester United 01/11/2025 xG 2.00 – 1.15

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.