Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 16:00
Full timeNottingham Forest 0:1 Leeds United
Nottingham Forest were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. Leeds United won 1–0. The biggest difference was Nottingham Forest's attack: 0.66 xG against 1.49 projected (−0.83). Leeds United produced 0.47 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.73).
Goals
- 88' Anton Stach Leeds United · 0.03 xG chance 0–1
The model against the result
- Nottingham Forest
- 42%
- Draw
- 30%
- Leeds United
- 28% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Nottingham Forest produced 0.83 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 11
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 6
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.04
- Open play xG
- 0.12
- 0.14
- Set-piece xG
- 0.52
- 0.35
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.65 for Nottingham Forest and 0.49 for Leeds United.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 1.13 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Nottingham Forest
- Leeds United
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.51 xG created 1.70 xGA
- W 1.19 created, 0.36 conceded against Burnley
- W 1.10 created, 0.70 conceded against Sunderland
- W 2.05 created, 2.15 conceded against Chelsea
- D 1.10 created, 1.48 conceded against Newcastle United
- L 1.88 created, 4.57 conceded against Manchester United
- D 1.73 created, 0.95 conceded against Bournemouth
1.43 xG created 1.62 xGA
- W 2.82 created, 0.57 conceded against Wolverhampton
- D 0.81 created, 1.65 conceded against Bournemouth
- W 1.64 created, 0.57 conceded against Burnley
- D 1.34 created, 1.27 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- W 0.39 created, 3.06 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 1.59 created, 2.61 conceded against West Ham United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.75 | +4.9% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.30 | +2.8% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.40 | +2.1% | Lost |
| Nottingham Forest to score | 1.25 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest | 42.1% | 41.3% | +0.7 pp | 2.38 |
| Draw | 30.0% | 28.0% | +2.1 pp | 3.33 |
| Leeds United | 27.9% | 30.7% | −2.8 pp | 3.58 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest to score | 80.0% | 75.0% | +5.0 pp | 1.25 |
| Nottingham Forest not to score | 20.0% | 25.0% | −5.0 pp | 5.01 |
| Leeds United to score | 72.7% | 68.7% | +4.0 pp | 1.37 |
| Leeds United not to score | 27.3% | 31.3% | −4.0 pp | 3.67 |
| Both teams to score | 60.0% | 53.3% | +6.6 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.0% | 46.7% | −6.6 pp | 2.50 |
| Nottingham Forest 2+ goals | 45.1% | 42.3% | +2.8 pp | 2.22 |
| Nottingham Forest at most 1 goal | 54.9% | 57.7% | −2.8 pp | 1.82 |
| Leeds United 2+ goals | 34.3% | 33.7% | +0.5 pp | 2.92 |
| Leeds United at most 1 goal | 65.7% | 66.3% | −0.5 pp | 1.52 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.1% | 72.9% | +6.2 pp | 1.26 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20.9% | 27.1% | −6.2 pp | 4.79 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.7% | 50.0% | +1.7 pp | 1.93 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.3% | 50.0% | −1.7 pp | 2.07 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Nottingham Forest sample
- 20 matches
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 7 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.