Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeLiverpool 0:0 Fulham
Liverpool were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Fulham's attack: 0.70 xG against 1.29 projected (−0.59). Liverpool produced 1.28 xG against 1.71 projected (−0.43).
The model against the result
- Liverpool
- 46%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- Fulham
- 26%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Fulham produced 0.59 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 10
- On target
- 3
- 3
- Inside the box
- 9
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 0.75
- 0.59
- Set-piece xG
- 0.38
- 0.13
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.13 for Liverpool and 0.71 for Fulham.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 1.85 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Liverpool
- Fulham
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.74 xG created 1.42 xGA
- D 0.56 created, 0.50 conceded against Chelsea
- L 1.43 created, 1.85 conceded against Aston Villa
- D 3.04 created, 1.56 conceded against Brentford
- D 2.98 created, 1.58 conceded against Newcastle United
- D 1.75 created, 2.30 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- W 0.69 created, 0.75 conceded against Ipswich Town
1.70 xG created 1.42 xGA
- L 1.33 created, 0.82 conceded against Bournemouth
- D 1.59 created, 1.40 conceded against Wolverhampton
- W 1.81 created, 0.31 conceded against Newcastle United
- L 1.33 created, 2.24 conceded against Chelsea
- L 1.02 created, 1.75 conceded against Sunderland
- L 3.14 created, 1.97 conceded against Crystal Palace
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 opportunities flagged4 won4 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham to win | 5.50 | +44.3% | Lost |
| Liverpool not to score | 9.00 | +40.1% | Won |
| Draw | 4.75 | +31.8% | Won |
| Liverpool at most 1 goal | 2.75 | +29.6% | Won |
| Fulham 2+ goals | 3.00 | +13.1% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | +11.3% | Won |
| Fulham to score | 1.40 | +5.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.57 | +2.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool | 46.0% | 63.0% | −16.9 pp | 2.17 |
| Draw | 27.7% | 19.9% | +7.9 pp | 3.60 |
| Fulham | 26.2% | 17.2% | +9.1 pp | 3.81 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liverpool to score | 84.4% | 89.4% | −4.9 pp | 1.18 |
| Liverpool not to score | 15.6% | 10.6% | +4.9 pp | 6.42 |
| Fulham to score | 75.1% | 66.3% | +8.9 pp | 1.33 |
| Fulham not to score | 24.9% | 33.7% | −8.9 pp | 4.02 |
| Both teams to score | 65.0% | 58.9% | +6.1 pp | 1.54 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.0% | 41.1% | −6.1 pp | 2.85 |
| Liverpool 2+ goals | 52.9% | 66.3% | −13.4 pp | 1.89 |
| Liverpool at most 1 goal | 47.1% | 33.7% | +13.4 pp | 2.12 |
| Fulham 2+ goals | 37.7% | 31.3% | +6.4 pp | 2.65 |
| Fulham at most 1 goal | 62.3% | 68.7% | −6.4 pp | 1.61 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.0% | 82.8% | +1.2 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 16.0% | 17.2% | −1.2 pp | 6.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.5% | 65.6% | −6.0 pp | 1.68 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.5% | 34.4% | +6.0 pp | 2.47 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Fulham sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.