Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 17:30
Full timeNewcastle United 2:2 Liverpool
Newcastle United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Liverpool's attack: 2.98 xG against 1.49 projected (+1.49).
Goals
- 5' Anthony Elanga Newcastle United · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
- 55' Cody Gakpo Liverpool · 0.02 xG chance 1–1
- 57' Joe Willock Newcastle United · 0.09 xG chance 2–1
- 90' Dominik Szoboszlai (pen.) Liverpool · 0.82 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Newcastle United
- 38%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- Liverpool
- 34%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Liverpool produced 1.49 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 27
- On target
- 4
- 7
- Inside the box
- 6
- 16
- xG per shot
- 0.11
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.25
- 0.75
- Set-piece xG
- 0.13
- 1.21
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.42 for Newcastle United and 1.94 for Liverpool.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
40 shots · 4.16 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Newcastle United
- Liverpool
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.55 xG created 1.48 xGA
- L 1.59 created, 2.99 conceded against Bournemouth
- L 1.00 created, 0.49 conceded against Arsenal
- W 3.16 created, 1.53 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- D 1.48 created, 1.10 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- W 1.73 created, 0.95 conceded against West Ham United
- L 0.31 created, 1.81 conceded against Fulham
1.42 xG created 1.55 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged3 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United to win | 4.00 | +52.3% | Lost |
| Liverpool not to score | 6.50 | +29.0% | Lost |
| Liverpool at most 1 goal | 2.25 | +23.0% | Lost |
| Newcastle United 2+ goals | 2.38 | +15.2% | Won |
| Draw | 3.80 | +6.6% | Won |
| Newcastle United to score | 1.29 | +5.4% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +1.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United | 38.1% | 24.1% | +14.0 pp | 2.63 |
| Draw | 28.0% | 25.3% | +2.7 pp | 3.57 |
| Liverpool | 33.9% | 50.6% | −16.8 pp | 2.95 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle United to score | 81.9% | 73.1% | +8.8 pp | 1.22 |
| Newcastle United not to score | 18.1% | 26.9% | −8.8 pp | 5.54 |
| Liverpool to score | 80.2% | 85.4% | −5.2 pp | 1.25 |
| Liverpool not to score | 19.8% | 14.6% | +5.2 pp | 5.04 |
| Both teams to score | 67.2% | 64.5% | +2.7 pp | 1.49 |
| Both teams not to score | 32.8% | 35.5% | −2.7 pp | 3.05 |
| Newcastle United 2+ goals | 48.5% | 39.2% | +9.3 pp | 2.06 |
| Newcastle United at most 1 goal | 51.5% | 60.8% | −9.3 pp | 1.94 |
| Liverpool 2+ goals | 45.3% | 58.9% | −13.6 pp | 2.21 |
| Liverpool at most 1 goal | 54.7% | 41.1% | +13.6 pp | 1.83 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.0% | 82.8% | +2.2 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.0% | 17.2% | −2.2 pp | 6.67 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.3% | 63.6% | −2.4 pp | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.7% | 36.4% | +2.4 pp | 2.58 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Liverpool sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 days before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.