Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeManchester City 1:0 Coventry City
Manchester City were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 65%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Coventry City's attack: 1.37 xG against 0.85 projected (+0.52).
Goals
- 26' Erling Haaland Manchester City · 0.13 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Manchester City
- 65% What happened
- Draw
- 23%
- Coventry City
- 12%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 2 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Coventry City produced 0.52 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 12
- On target
- 4
- 3
- Inside the box
- 14
- 8
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 1.63
- 0.59
- Set-piece xG
- 0.22
- 0.60
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.82 for Manchester City and 1.21 for Coventry City.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
27 shots · 3.04 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Manchester City
- Coventry City
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.99 xG created 1.05 xGA
- W 2.98 created, 0.24 conceded against Brentford
- W 1.66 created, 0.73 conceded against Crystal Palace
- D 1.48 created, 2.25 conceded against Bournemouth
- L 1.34 created, 1.77 conceded against Aston Villa
- W 2.25 created, 0.65 conceded against Bournemouth
- W 2.21 created, 0.66 conceded against Crystal Palace
0.75 xG created 1.30 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 7.50 | +73.5% | Lost |
| Manchester City not to score | 15.00 | +66.0% | Lost |
| Manchester City at most 1 goal | 4.33 | +62.3% | Won |
| Coventry City to win | 13.00 | +56.0% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 3.20 | +38.3% | Won |
| Under 1.5 goals | 6.50 | +16.8% | Won |
| Coventry City to score | 1.80 | +8.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +4.7% | Lost |
| Coventry City 2+ goals | 5.00 | +2.5% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 64.9% | 80.1% | −15.2 pp | 1.54 |
| Draw | 23.1% | 12.6% | +10.5 pp | 4.32 |
| Coventry City | 12.0% | 7.3% | +4.7 pp | 8.34 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City to score | 88.9% | 93.6% | −4.6 pp | 1.12 |
| Manchester City not to score | 11.1% | 6.4% | +4.6 pp | 9.04 |
| Coventry City to score | 60.1% | 51.5% | +8.6 pp | 1.66 |
| Coventry City not to score | 39.9% | 48.5% | −8.6 pp | 2.51 |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 50.0% | +4.8 pp | 1.82 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.2% | 50.0% | −4.8 pp | 2.21 |
| Manchester City 2+ goals | 62.6% | 78.3% | −15.8 pp | 1.60 |
| Manchester City at most 1 goal | 37.4% | 21.7% | +15.8 pp | 2.67 |
| Coventry City 2+ goals | 20.5% | 18.9% | +1.6 pp | 4.88 |
| Coventry City at most 1 goal | 79.5% | 81.1% | −1.6 pp | 1.26 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | 85.4% | −3.4 pp | 1.22 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.0% | 14.6% | +3.4 pp | 5.57 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.8% | 70.1% | −13.3 pp | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43.2% | 29.9% | +13.3 pp | 2.31 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Manchester City sample
- 20 matches
- Coventry City sample
- 2 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Warnings
- Coventry City has only 2 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.