Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 18:30
Full timeTottenham Hotspur 0:0 Everton
Tottenham Hotspur were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Tottenham Hotspur's attack: 0.69 xG against 1.48 projected (−0.79).
The model against the result
- Tottenham Hotspur
- 42%
- Draw
- 30% What happened
- Everton
- 28%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Tottenham Hotspur produced 0.79 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 12
- On target
- 2
- 3
- Inside the box
- 8
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.09
- Open play xG
- 0.45
- 0.76
- Set-piece xG
- 0.19
- 0.36
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.64 for Tottenham Hotspur and 1.17 for Everton.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
26 shots · 1.76 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Tottenham Hotspur
- Everton
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.07 xG created 1.32 xGA
- D 1.27 created, 1.34 conceded against Leeds United
- L 1.27 created, 0.63 conceded against Chelsea
- W 1.15 created, 0.41 conceded against Everton
- L 0.57 created, 3.87 conceded against Brentford
- L 1.12 created, 0.72 conceded against Newcastle United
- D 1.06 created, 0.92 conceded against Nottingham Forest
1.17 xG created 1.55 xGA
- D 1.59 created, 2.56 conceded against Crystal Palace
- L 1.04 created, 0.76 conceded against Sunderland
- L 0.41 created, 1.15 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- W 1.12 created, 1.96 conceded against Crystal Palace
- D 1.84 created, 2.16 conceded against Bournemouth
- D 1.01 created, 0.69 conceded against Manchester United
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.80 | +14.5% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.20 | +7.2% | Won |
| Tottenham Hotspur at most 1 goal | 1.83 | +1.1% | Won |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to score | 5.00 | +0.8% | Won |
| Everton to win | 3.60 | +0.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur | 42.0% | 48.7% | −6.6 pp | 2.38 |
| Draw | 30.1% | 25.0% | +5.1 pp | 3.32 |
| Everton | 27.9% | 26.4% | +1.5 pp | 3.59 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur to score | 79.8% | 81.1% | −1.2 pp | 1.25 |
| Tottenham Hotspur not to score | 20.2% | 18.9% | +1.2 pp | 4.96 |
| Everton to score | 72.5% | 70.9% | +1.6 pp | 1.38 |
| Everton not to score | 27.5% | 29.1% | −1.6 pp | 3.64 |
| Both teams to score | 59.6% | 57.7% | +2.0 pp | 1.68 |
| Both teams not to score | 40.4% | 42.3% | −2.0 pp | 2.48 |
| Tottenham Hotspur 2+ goals | 44.8% | 50.0% | −5.2 pp | 2.23 |
| Tottenham Hotspur at most 1 goal | 55.2% | 50.0% | +5.2 pp | 1.81 |
| Everton 2+ goals | 34.0% | 35.5% | −1.5 pp | 2.94 |
| Everton at most 1 goal | 66.0% | 64.5% | +1.5 pp | 1.51 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.8% | 78.0% | +0.8 pp | 1.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.2% | 22.0% | −0.8 pp | 4.72 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.3% | 56.9% | −5.6 pp | 1.95 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48.7% | 43.1% | +5.6 pp | 2.05 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Tottenham Hotspur sample
- 20 matches
- Everton sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.