Tottenham Hotspur 0:2 Newcastle United: xG & match report · Premier League

Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 18:30

Full time

Match report · Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur Home 1.12 xG · 17 shots

Newcastle United Away 0.72 xG · 11 shots

02 The result went against the chances

Tottenham Hotspur were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. Newcastle United won 2–0. The biggest difference was Newcastle United's attack: 0.72 xG against 1.32 projected (−0.60). Tottenham Hotspur produced 1.12 xG against 1.62 projected (−0.50).

Goals

62' Anthony Elanga Newcastle United · 0.15 xG chance 0–1
72' Yoane Wissa Newcastle United · 0.27 xG chance 0–2

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Tottenham Hotspur: 43%
Draw: 28%
Newcastle United: 29% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Tottenham Hotspur 1.62 1.12 -0.50

Newcastle United 1.32 0.72 -0.60

Newcastle United produced 0.60 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Tottenham Hotspur Newcastle United

Shots: 17; 11
On target: 6; 2
Inside the box: 10; 7
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.82; 0.34
Set-piece xG: 0.24; 0.41
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.04 for Tottenham Hotspur and 0.75 for Newcastle United.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 1.81 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Tottenham Hotspur
Newcastle United
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Tottenham Hotspur

1.05 xG created 1.20 xGA

W 1.05 created, 0.62 conceded against Wolverhampton
W 0.99 created, 0.32 conceded against Aston Villa
D 1.27 created, 1.34 conceded against Leeds United
L 1.27 created, 0.63 conceded against Chelsea
W 1.15 created, 0.41 conceded against Everton
L 0.57 created, 3.87 conceded against Brentford

Newcastle United

1.54 xG created 1.48 xGA

L 1.00 created, 0.49 conceded against Arsenal
W 3.16 created, 1.53 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
D 1.48 created, 1.10 conceded against Nottingham Forest
W 1.73 created, 0.95 conceded against West Ham United
L 0.31 created, 1.81 conceded against Fulham
D 1.58 created, 2.98 conceded against Liverpool

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Tottenham Hotspur: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost

Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Tottenham Hotspur against Newcastle United before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.70	+5.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.57	+1.3%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur	42.7%	43.0%	−0.3 pp	2.34
Draw	28.5%	25.5%	+2.9 pp	3.51
Newcastle United	28.8%	31.5%	−2.7 pp	3.47

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Tottenham Hotspur to score	82.6%	79.2%	+3.4 pp	1.21
Tottenham Hotspur not to score	17.4%	20.8%	−3.4 pp	5.75
Newcastle United to score	76.1%	73.1%	+3.0 pp	1.31
Newcastle United not to score	23.9%	26.9%	−3.0 pp	4.19
Both teams to score	64.5%	58.9%	+5.6 pp	1.55
Both teams not to score	35.5%	41.1%	−5.6 pp	2.81
Tottenham Hotspur 2+ goals	49.6%	48.5%	+1.1 pp	2.01
Tottenham Hotspur at most 1 goal	50.4%	51.5%	−1.1 pp	1.99
Newcastle United 2+ goals	39.0%	39.2%	−0.2 pp	2.56
Newcastle United at most 1 goal	61.0%	60.8%	+0.2 pp	1.64
Over 1.5 goals	83.1%	78.9%	+4.2 pp	1.20
Under 1.5 goals	16.9%	21.1%	−4.2 pp	5.92
Over 2.5 goals	58.1%	56.9%	+1.2 pp	1.72
Under 2.5 goals	41.9%	43.1%	−1.2 pp	2.38

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Tottenham Hotspur sample: 20 matches
Newcastle United sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.