Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeEverton 2:2 Manchester United
Manchester United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Manchester United's attack: 0.69 xG against 1.67 projected (−0.98). Everton produced 1.01 xG against 1.40 projected (−0.39).
Goals
- 47' Bryan Mbeumo Manchester United · 0.02 xG chance 0–1
- 83' Tyrique George Everton · 0.04 xG chance 1–1
- 88' Benjamin Šeško Manchester United · 0.26 xG chance 1–2
- 90' Ainsley Maitland-Niles Everton · 0.03 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- Everton
- 30%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- Manchester United
- 42%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Manchester United produced 0.98 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 14
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 14
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.05
- Open play xG
- 0.67
- 0.68
- Set-piece xG
- 0.37
- 0.04
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.01 for Everton and 0.72 for Manchester United.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
32 shots · 1.76 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Everton
- Manchester United
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.45 xG created 1.69 xGA
- D 2.72 created, 1.54 conceded against Manchester City
- D 1.59 created, 2.56 conceded against Crystal Palace
- L 1.04 created, 0.76 conceded against Sunderland
- L 0.41 created, 1.15 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- W 1.12 created, 1.96 conceded against Crystal Palace
- D 1.84 created, 2.16 conceded against Bournemouth
2.59 xG created 1.35 xGA
- W 2.34 created, 0.89 conceded against Liverpool
- D 0.62 created, 1.25 conceded against Sunderland
- W 4.57 created, 1.88 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- W 1.66 created, 0.79 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 1.81 created, 1.26 conceded against Hull City
- W 4.56 created, 2.01 conceded against Ipswich Town
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Everton to win | 3.70 | +10.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.80 | +6.0% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | +2.5% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Everton | 29.8% | 25.6% | +4.3 pp | 3.35 |
| Draw | 27.9% | 24.9% | +3.0 pp | 3.58 |
| Manchester United | 42.3% | 49.5% | −7.3 pp | 2.37 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 66.9% | 60.8% | +6.1 pp | 1.50 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.1% | 39.2% | −6.1 pp | 3.02 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.0% | 81.1% | +3.9 pp | 1.18 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.0% | 18.9% | −3.9 pp | 6.65 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.1% | 58.7% | +2.4 pp | 1.64 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 38.9% | 41.3% | −2.4 pp | 2.57 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Everton sample
- 20 matches
- Manchester United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 48 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 48 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.