Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
31d 12h to kick-offBrinje Grosuplje – NK Aluminij Kidričevo
Model updated 7 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Brinje Grosuplje
- 37%
- Draw
- 30%
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- 32%
| Brinje Grosuplje | Draw | NK Aluminij Kidričevo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.67 | 3.31 | 3.09 |
- Total goals
- 2.72
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Brinje Grosuplje
37% Brinje Grosuplje to win
- Attack
- 10th vs 7th
- Brinje Grosuplje attack v NK Aluminij Kidričevo defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 9th
- Brinje Grosuplje defence v NK Aluminij Kidričevo attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.71 vs +0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.41 – 1.31
- Brinje Grosuplje v NK Aluminij Kidričevo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Brinje Grosuplje | NK Aluminij Kidričevo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.25 · 10th | (better) 1.44 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.77 · 8th | (better) 1.48 · 6th |
| xGD / match | -0.52 · 9th | (better) -0.05 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.06 · 9th | (better) 1.29 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) +0.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Brinje Grosuplje clean sheet
- 24%
- Brinje Grosuplje 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 47%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Brinje Grosuplje sample
- 10 matches
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Brinje Grosuplje
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.