Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 17:30
Full timeFC Koper 1:3 NK Olimpija Ljubljana
FC Koper were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. NK Olimpija Ljubljana won 3–1. The biggest difference was FC Koper's attack: 0.60 xG against 1.36 projected (−0.76). NK Olimpija Ljubljana produced 1.49 xG against 1.16 projected (+0.33).
The model against the result
- FC Koper
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- 29% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Koper produced 0.76 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 11
- On target
- 1
- 6
- Inside the box
- 4
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.06
- 0.14
Recent form
1.37 xG created 1.01 xGA
- D 1.67 created, 0.69 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
- L 0.54 created, 0.40 conceded against NK Maribor
- D 2.12 created, 1.60 conceded against NK Bravo
- W 1.14 created, 1.06 conceded against NŠ Mura
- W 0.87 created, 0.22 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- W 1.88 created, 2.11 conceded against NK Celje
1.75 xG created 1.32 xGA
- W 2.12 created, 0.56 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- L 0.44 created, 1.59 conceded against NK Celje
- D 0.46 created, 0.97 conceded against NK Maribor
- W 1.92 created, 2.62 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- D 2.70 created, 1.27 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
- W 2.87 created, 0.90 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
1 opportunity flagged0 won1 lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.25 | +1.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Koper | 39.5% | 41.2% | −1.7 pp | 2.53 |
| Draw | 31.3% | 27.2% | +4.1 pp | 3.20 |
| NK Olimpija Ljubljana | 29.2% | 31.6% | −2.4 pp | 3.42 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Koper to score | 77.2% | 75.0% | +2.2 pp | 1.29 |
| FC Koper not to score | 22.8% | 25.0% | −2.2 pp | 4.39 |
| NK Olimpija Ljubljana to score | 71.6% | 70.9% | +0.7 pp | 1.40 |
| NK Olimpija Ljubljana not to score | 28.4% | 29.1% | −0.7 pp | 3.52 |
| Both teams to score | 57.1% | 53.7% | +3.5 pp | 1.75 |
| Both teams not to score | 42.9% | 46.3% | −3.5 pp | 2.33 |
| FC Koper 2+ goals | 40.6% | 44.3% | −3.6 pp | 2.46 |
| FC Koper at most 1 goal | 59.4% | 55.7% | +3.6 pp | 1.68 |
| NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals | 32.8% | 35.5% | −2.6 pp | 3.04 |
| NK Olimpija Ljubljana at most 1 goal | 67.2% | 64.5% | +2.6 pp | 1.49 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.2% | 73.1% | +3.0 pp | 1.31 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 26.9% | −3.0 pp | 4.19 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.4% | 50.0% | −2.6 pp | 2.11 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52.6% | 50.0% | +2.6 pp | 1.90 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Koper sample
- 20 matches
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 2 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.