NK Bravo 2:1 NK Celje: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Saturday, 12/09/2026 at 20:15

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Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NK Bravo Home 0.42 xG

NK Celje Away 1.77 xG

21 The result went against the chances

NK Bravo were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 38%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was NK Bravo's attack: 0.42 xG against 1.84 projected (−1.42).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Bravo: 38% What happened
Draw: 25%
NK Celje: 37%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Bravo 1.84 0.42 -1.42

NK Celje 1.83 1.77 -0.06

NK Bravo produced 1.42 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Bravo NK Celje

Shots: 7; 9
On target: 4; 1
Inside the box: 4; 7
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.20

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Bravo

1.36 xG created 1.96 xGA

W 1.31 created, 2.40 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
D 1.28 created, 2.07 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
D 1.60 created, 2.12 conceded against FC Koper
L 0.97 created, 1.55 conceded against NK Maribor
W 1.63 created, 2.42 conceded against NŠ Mura
D 1.37 created, 1.19 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo

NK Celje

1.76 xG created 1.26 xGA

D 1.94 created, 0.96 conceded against NŠ Mura
D 1.35 created, 1.44 conceded against NK Maribor
W 1.59 created, 0.44 conceded against NK Olimpija Ljubljana
W 2.11 created, 1.29 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
L 1.48 created, 1.56 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 2.11 created, 1.88 conceded against FC Koper

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Bravo: 2 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged6 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Bravo against NK Celje before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
NK Bravo 2+ goals	2.50	+42.7%	Won
NK Bravo to win	3.70	+39.6%	Won
Both teams to score	1.53	+16.2%	Won
NK Bravo to score	1.33	+15.3%	Won
Over 2.5 goals	1.44	+6.0%	Won
Over 1.5 goals	1.13	+2.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Bravo	37.7%	24.3%	+13.4 pp	2.65
Draw	25.2%	23.7%	+1.5 pp	3.98
NK Celje	37.1%	52.0%	−14.9 pp	2.69

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Bravo to score	86.5%	70.9%	+15.6 pp	1.16
NK Bravo not to score	13.5%	29.1%	−15.6 pp	7.41
NK Celje to score	86.3%	84.4%	+1.9 pp	1.16
NK Celje not to score	13.7%	15.6%	−1.9 pp	7.29
Both teams to score	75.8%	60.8%	+15.0 pp	1.32
Both teams not to score	24.2%	39.2%	−15.0 pp	4.13
NK Bravo 2+ goals	57.1%	37.5%	+19.6 pp	1.75
NK Bravo at most 1 goal	42.9%	62.5%	−19.6 pp	2.33
NK Celje 2+ goals	56.7%	58.9%	−2.2 pp	1.76
NK Celje at most 1 goal	43.3%	41.1%	+2.2 pp	2.31
Over 1.5 goals	91.3%	83.0%	+8.2 pp	1.10
Under 1.5 goals	8.7%	17.0%	−8.2 pp	11.43
Over 2.5 goals	73.4%	64.5%	+8.9 pp	1.36
Under 2.5 goals	26.6%	35.5%	−8.9 pp	3.76

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Bravo sample: 20 matches
NK Celje sample: 20 matches
Computed: 5 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 5 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.