Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 13:30
Full timeAkhmat Grozny 3:2 Dinamo Makhachkala
Akhmat Grozny were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. They won 3–2.
The model against the result
- Akhmat Grozny
- 40% What happened
- Draw
- 33%
- Dinamo Makhachkala
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.16 xG created 1.43 xGA
- D 0.62 created, 2.25 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
- L 0.60 created, 2.00 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
- W 2.03 created, 1.07 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
- D 0.97 created, 0.66 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
- D 0.86 created, 1.15 conceded against FC Sochi
- D 1.87 created, 1.44 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
1.03 xG created 0.88 xGA
- L 1.78 created, 2.18 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- L 1.25 created, 0.32 conceded against FC Rostov
- D 0.66 created, 0.97 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
- D 0.59 created, 0.72 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
- W 0.66 created, 0.70 conceded against Ural Yekaterinburg
- W 1.21 created, 0.39 conceded against Ural Yekaterinburg
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 opportunities flagged0 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.31 | +7.6% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.75 | +1.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akhmat Grozny | 40.5% | 44.4% | −4.0 pp | 2.47 |
| Draw | 32.5% | 29.1% | +3.4 pp | 3.07 |
| Dinamo Makhachkala | 27.0% | 26.4% | +0.6 pp | 3.71 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.8% | 45.0% | −3.2 pp | 2.39 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 55.0% | +3.2 pp | 1.72 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Akhmat Grozny sample
- 20 matches
- Dinamo Makhachkala sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 3 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.