Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 15:30
Full timeBaltika Kaliningrad 2:1 Akron Togliatti
Baltika Kaliningrad were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 60%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Baltika Kaliningrad's attack: 2.35 xG against 1.98 projected (+0.37). Akron Togliatti produced 1.29 xG against 0.99 projected (+0.30).
The model against the result
- Baltika Kaliningrad
- 60% What happened
- Draw
- 25%
- Akron Togliatti
- 15%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Baltika Kaliningrad produced 0.37 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 12
- On target
- 8
- 2
- Inside the box
- 11
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.11
Recent form
1.39 xG created 1.16 xGA
- L 0.56 created, 0.89 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
- D 3.12 created, 0.62 conceded against Fakel Voronezh
- L 1.64 created, 0.94 conceded against Zenit St. Petersburg
- D 1.03 created, 2.19 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
- D 0.85 created, 1.22 conceded against FC Rostov
- D 1.16 created, 1.12 conceded against FK Krasnodar
0.85 xG created 1.75 xGA
- D 0.93 created, 1.91 conceded against Orenburg
- D 0.42 created, 3.05 conceded against FK Krasnodar
- W 0.95 created, 0.79 conceded against Akhmat Grozny
- L 0.76 created, 0.73 conceded against FC Rostov
- D 0.60 created, 1.24 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
- W 1.46 created, 2.80 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 qualified edges flagged2 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.23 | +22.2% | Won |
| Baltika Kaliningrad to win | 1.62 | +1.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika Kaliningrad | 60.0% | 59.4% | +0.6 pp | 1.67 |
| Draw | 24.6% | 25.0% | −0.4 pp | 4.07 |
| Akron Togliatti | 15.5% | 15.6% | −0.2 pp | 6.47 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.8% | 43.1% | +15.7 pp | 1.70 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41.2% | 56.9% | −15.7 pp | 2.42 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Baltika Kaliningrad sample
- 20 matches
- Akron Togliatti sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 46 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 29 minutes before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.