FK Krasnodar 1:1 Akron Togliatti: xG & match report · Russian Premier League

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 18:30

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Match report · Russian Premier League

FK Krasnodar Home

Akron Togliatti Away

FK Krasnodar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 71%. It finished 1–1.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Krasnodar: 71%
Draw: 18% What happened
Akron Togliatti: 10%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Krasnodar

1.87 xG created 1.46 xGA

W 1.22 created, 3.13 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
W 2.18 created, 1.78 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
W 1.30 created, 0.35 conceded against Akron Togliatti
L 1.32 created, 1.31 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
W 2.69 created, 1.39 conceded against Orenburg
W 2.49 created, 0.79 conceded against Rubin Kazan

Akron Togliatti

1.24 xG created 1.89 xGA

W 0.51 created, 1.17 conceded against Baltika Kaliningrad
L 0.35 created, 1.30 conceded against FK Krasnodar
L 1.76 created, 1.29 conceded against FC Rostov
L 2.02 created, 4.23 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
W 1.53 created, 1.01 conceded against Rotor Volgograd
L 1.28 created, 2.35 conceded against Rotor Volgograd

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Krasnodar: 2 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

1 opportunity flagged1 won0 lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Krasnodar against Akron Togliatti before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	5.67	+4.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Krasnodar	71.4%	72.5%	−1.2 pp	1.40
Draw	18.4%	16.8%	+1.6 pp	5.42
Akron Togliatti	10.2%	10.6%	−0.5 pp	9.83

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Krasnodar sample: 20 matches
Akron Togliatti sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.