Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 14:00
21d 12h to kick-offCSKA Moscow – FC Spartak Moscow
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- CSKA Moscow
- 27%
- Draw
- 27%
- FC Spartak Moscow
- 46%
| CSKA Moscow | Draw | FC Spartak Moscow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.76 | 3.65 | 2.18 |
- Total goals
- 3.06
- Over 2.5 goals
- 61%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Spartak Moscow
46% FC Spartak Moscow to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 13th
- FC Spartak Moscow attack v CSKA Moscow defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 8th
- FC Spartak Moscow defence v CSKA Moscow attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.84 vs -0.34
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.32 – 1.74
- CSKA Moscow v FC Spartak Moscow
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | CSKA Moscow | FC Spartak Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.34 | (better) +0.84 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- FC Spartak Moscow clean sheet
- 24%
- FC Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 39%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.0%
- 1:2
- 10.7%
- 2:1
- 7.9%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- CSKA Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- FC Spartak Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · CSKA Moscow
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Spartak Moscow
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.