Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 11:45
21d 10h to kick-offFC Rostov – Lokomotiv Moscow
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Rostov
- 37%
- Draw
- 30%
- Lokomotiv Moscow
- 33%
| FC Rostov | Draw | Lokomotiv Moscow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.68 | 3.39 | 3.01 |
- Total goals
- 2.83
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% FC Rostov to win
- Attack
- 13th vs 12th
- FC Rostov attack v Lokomotiv Moscow defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 3rd
- FC Rostov defence v Lokomotiv Moscow attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.54 vs +0.26
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.46 – 1.37
- FC Rostov v Lokomotiv Moscow
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Rostov | Lokomotiv Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.54 | (better) +0.26 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- FC Rostov clean sheet
- 23%
- FC Rostov 2+ goals
- 44%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.3%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Rostov sample
- 20 matches
- Lokomotiv Moscow sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Rostov
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Lokomotiv Moscow
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.