xgEdge

Expected goals

Pari Nizhny Novgorod expected goals (xG) 2025/2026

Russian Premier League · after 29 matches · updated 1 Oct

Pari Nizhny Novgorod's attacking and defensive expected goals in Russian Premier League 2025/2026, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Pari Nizhny Novgorod xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.11 xG per match
#13/16
Attack (xG per match) across Russian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Lokomotiv Moscow 1.88
#2 FK Krasnodar 1.88
#3 Dynamo Moscow 1.80
#4 FC Spartak Moscow 1.78
#5 Zenit St. Petersburg 1.77
#6 CSKA Moscow 1.51
#7 Baltika Kaliningrad 1.47
#8 Orenburg 1.38
#9 FC Rostov 1.35
#10 Akron Togliatti 1.32
#11 Akhmat Grozny 1.30
#12 Rubin Kazan 1.14
#13 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1.11
#14 Dinamo Makhachkala 1.09
#15 Krylya Sovetov Samara 1.02
#16 FC Sochi 0.93
League avg
1.42
Total
32.29 29 matches
Defence
1.81 xGA per match
#14/16
Defence (xGA per match) across Russian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Zenit St. Petersburg 0.85
#2 FK Krasnodar 1.02
#3 Baltika Kaliningrad 1.14
#4 FC Rostov 1.20
#5 Dinamo Makhachkala 1.21
#6 FC Spartak Moscow 1.22
#7 Rubin Kazan 1.23
#8 Dynamo Moscow 1.36
#9 Akhmat Grozny 1.36
#10 CSKA Moscow 1.57
#11 Lokomotiv Moscow 1.59
#12 Orenburg 1.60
#13 Krylya Sovetov Samara 1.79
#14 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 1.81
#15 Akron Togliatti 1.82
#16 FC Sochi 1.94
League avg
1.42
Total
52.44 29 matches
xG difference
-0.69 xGD per match
#14/16
xG difference (xGD per match) across Russian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Zenit St. Petersburg +0.92
#2 FK Krasnodar +0.86
#3 FC Spartak Moscow +0.56
#4 Dynamo Moscow +0.43
#5 Baltika Kaliningrad +0.32
#6 Lokomotiv Moscow +0.29
#7 FC Rostov +0.16
#8 CSKA Moscow -0.07
#9 Akhmat Grozny -0.07
#10 Rubin Kazan -0.09
#11 Dinamo Makhachkala -0.12
#12 Orenburg -0.22
#13 Akron Togliatti -0.50
#14 Pari Nizhny Novgorod -0.69
#15 Krylya Sovetov Samara -0.77
#16 FC Sochi -1.01
League avg
0.00
Total
-20.15 29 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.96 xPts per match
#14/16
Expected points (xPts per match) across Russian Premier League, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Zenit St. Petersburg 1.94
#2 FK Krasnodar 1.88
#3 FC Spartak Moscow 1.74
#4 Lokomotiv Moscow 1.62
#5 Dynamo Moscow 1.60
#6 Baltika Kaliningrad 1.58
#7 FC Rostov 1.48
#8 CSKA Moscow 1.34
#9 Akhmat Grozny 1.31
#10 Rubin Kazan 1.28
#11 Dinamo Makhachkala 1.28
#12 Orenburg 1.28
#13 Akron Togliatti 1.06
#14 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0.96
#15 Krylya Sovetov Samara 0.93
#16 FC Sochi 0.84
League avg
1.38
Total
27.88 vs 23 actual pts

Expected goals here are summed over 29 of 30 matches — the rest were played with no xG figure published for them, so the margins compare two different lengths of season.

What the xG says

Pari Nizhny Novgorod's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Russian Premier League. They rank #14 for xG difference at -0.69 per match, from about average shot volume at the league's lowest chance quality. Their 24 goals are 8.29 below 32.29 xG, while 22 points are 5.88 below 27.88 xPts — both over the 29 matches with xG.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
24 32.29 -8.29 scored 8.29 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
48 52.44 -4.44 conceded 4.44 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
22 27.88 -5.88 5.88 points below xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Pari Nizhny Novgorod are 8.29 goals below their xG after 29 matches. The gap was widest at -8.48, against FC Rostov on Sun 05/04.

Goals
24
xG
32.29
Gap
-8.29
Sun 20/07 Fri 25/07 Sat 02/08 Sun 10/08 Mon 18/08 Sat 23/08 Sat 30/08 Sat 13/09 Sat 20/09 Sun 28/09 Sun 05/10 Sat 18/10 Sun 26/10 Fri 31/10 Sat 08/11 Sun 23/11 Sat 29/11 Sun 07/12 Sat 28/02 Sat 07/03 Sun 15/03 Sat 21/03 Sun 05/04 Sat 11/04 Sat 18/04 Wed 22/04 Sun 26/04 Sun 03/05 Mon 11/05 -9 -7 -5 -3 -1 +1 -0.72 -1.39 -0.80 -0.96 +0.12 -0.62 -0.95 +0.05 -0.20 -0.61 -0.42 -2.57 -3.67 -3.91 -4.80 -5.07 -5.68 -6.35 -6.99 -6.41 -6.61 -7.83 -8.48 -6.97 -6.63 -6.56 -6.35 -7.42 -8.29 -0.72 -0.67 +0.59 -0.16 +1.08 -0.74 -0.33 +1.00 -0.25 -0.41 +0.19 -2.15 -1.10 -0.24 -0.89 -0.27 -0.61 -0.67 -0.64 +0.58 -0.20 -1.22 -0.65 +1.51 +0.34 +0.07 +0.21 -1.07 -0.87 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Pari Nizhny Novgorod: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 20/07 FK Krasnodar 0 0.72 -0.72 -0.72
Fri 25/07 Krylya Sovetov Samara 0 0.67 -0.67 -1.39
Sat 02/08 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1.41 +0.59 -0.80
Sun 10/08 FC Rostov 0 0.16 -0.16 -0.96
Mon 18/08 Dinamo Makhachkala 2 0.92 +1.08 +0.12
Sat 23/08 Dynamo Moscow 0 0.74 -0.74 -0.62
Sat 30/08 Zenit St. Petersburg 0 0.33 -0.33 -0.95
Sat 13/09 Orenburg 3 2.00 +1.00 +0.05
Sat 20/09 Akhmat Grozny 1 1.25 -0.25 -0.20
Sun 28/09 FC Spartak Moscow 0 0.41 -0.41 -0.61
Sun 05/10 FC Sochi 1 0.81 +0.19 -0.42
Sat 18/10 Akron Togliatti 0 2.15 -2.15 -2.57
Sun 26/10 Baltika Kaliningrad 0 1.10 -1.10 -3.67
Fri 31/10 CSKA Moscow 0 0.24 -0.24 -3.91
Sat 08/11 Rubin Kazan 0 0.89 -0.89 -4.80
Sun 23/11 Zenit St. Petersburg 0 0.27 -0.27 -5.07
Sat 29/11 Akron Togliatti 2 2.61 -0.61 -5.68
Sun 07/12 Dinamo Makhachkala 1 1.67 -0.67 -6.35
Sat 28/02 Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1.64 -0.64 -6.99
Sat 07/03 FC Sochi 2 1.42 +0.58 -6.41
Sun 15/03 Krylya Sovetov Samara 3 3.20 -0.20 -6.61
Sat 21/03 FK Krasnodar 0 1.22 -1.22 -7.83
Sun 05/04 FC Rostov 0 0.65 -0.65 -8.48
Sat 11/04 Baltika Kaliningrad 2 0.49 +1.51 -6.97
Sat 18/04 Dynamo Moscow 1 0.66 +0.34 -6.63
Wed 22/04 Orenburg 1 0.93 +0.07 -6.56
Sun 26/04 FC Spartak Moscow 1 0.79 +0.21 -6.35
Sun 03/05 Akhmat Grozny 0 1.07 -1.07 -7.42
Mon 11/05 CSKA Moscow 1 1.87 -0.87 -8.29

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Pari Nizhny Novgorod xG trend

Current form -1.30 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 8 of 29 matches. The worst was against Dynamo Moscow on Sat 23/08 (-4.49).

npxG · last 6
0.97
npxGA · last 6
2.27
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 -1.42 Sun 20/07 -0.23 Fri 25/07 +0.13 Sat 02/08 -1.77 Sun 10/08 -0.92 Mon 18/08 -4.49 Sat 23/08 -2.16 Sat 30/08 -0.08 Sat 13/09 -0.86 Sat 20/09 -1.30 Sun 28/09 -1.21 Sun 05/10 +1.00 Sat 18/10 +0.78 Sun 26/10 -2.16 Fri 31/10 +0.16 Sat 08/11 -1.08 Sun 23/11 +0.63 Sat 29/11 +0.95 Sun 07/12 -0.16 Sat 28/02 +0.50 Sat 07/03 +2.75 Sun 15/03 -1.17 Sat 21/03 -0.22 Sun 05/04 -1.46 Sat 11/04 -1.80 Sat 18/04 -2.01 Wed 22/04 -0.92 Sun 26/04 -0.96 Sun 03/05 -0.67 Mon 11/05 -0.69 season avg
Pari Nizhny Novgorod: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 20/07 FK Krasnodar 0.72 2.14 -1.42 -1.42
Fri 25/07 Krylya Sovetov Samara 0.67 0.90 -0.23 -0.83
Sat 02/08 Lokomotiv Moscow 1.41 1.28 +0.13 -0.51
Sun 10/08 FC Rostov 0.16 1.93 -1.77 -0.82
Mon 18/08 Dinamo Makhachkala 0.92 1.84 -0.92 -0.84
Sat 23/08 Dynamo Moscow 0.74 5.23 -4.49 -1.45
Sat 30/08 Zenit St. Petersburg 0.33 2.49 -2.16 -1.55
Sat 13/09 Orenburg 2.00 2.08 -0.08 -1.37
Sat 20/09 Akhmat Grozny 1.25 2.11 -0.86 -1.31
Sun 28/09 FC Spartak Moscow 0.41 1.71 -1.30 -1.31
Sun 05/10 FC Sochi 0.81 2.02 -1.21 -1.30
Sat 18/10 Akron Togliatti 2.15 1.15 +1.00 -1.11
Sun 26/10 Baltika Kaliningrad 1.10 0.32 +0.78 -0.96
Fri 31/10 CSKA Moscow 0.24 2.40 -2.16 -1.05
Sat 08/11 Rubin Kazan 0.89 0.73 +0.16 -0.97
Sun 23/11 Zenit St. Petersburg 0.27 1.35 -1.08 -0.98
Sat 29/11 Akron Togliatti 2.61 1.98 +0.63 -0.88
Sun 07/12 Dinamo Makhachkala 1.67 0.72 +0.95 -0.78
Sat 28/02 Lokomotiv Moscow 1.64 1.80 -0.16 -0.75
Sat 07/03 FC Sochi 1.42 0.92 +0.50 -0.68
Sun 15/03 Krylya Sovetov Samara 3.20 0.45 +2.75 -0.52
Sat 21/03 FK Krasnodar 1.22 2.39 -1.17 -0.55
Sun 05/04 FC Rostov 0.65 0.87 -0.22 -0.54
Sat 11/04 Baltika Kaliningrad 0.49 1.95 -1.46 -0.57
Sat 18/04 Dynamo Moscow 0.66 2.46 -1.80 -0.62
Wed 22/04 Orenburg 0.93 2.94 -2.01 -0.68
Sun 26/04 FC Spartak Moscow 0.79 1.71 -0.92 -0.69
Sun 03/05 Akhmat Grozny 1.07 2.03 -0.96 -0.70
Mon 11/05 CSKA Moscow 1.87 2.54 -0.67 -0.69

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.11 npxG and 1.81 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 4 hardest of 16 in Russian Premier League
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 30 league matches
Last 5
tied number 6 hardest of 16 in Russian Premier League
+0.03 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 30 matches · number 4 hardest of 16

  1. Rubin Kazan Away −0.14
  2. CSKA Moscow Home −0.11
  3. Akhmat Grozny Away −0.13
  4. FC Spartak Moscow Home +0.54
  5. Orenburg Away +0.01
  6. Dynamo Moscow Home +0.19
  7. Baltika Kaliningrad Away +0.25
  8. FC Rostov Home −0.01
  9. FK Krasnodar Away +0.59
  10. Krylya Sovetov Samara Home −0.42
  11. FC Sochi Home −0.50
  12. Lokomotiv Moscow Away +0.26
  13. Dinamo Makhachkala Away −0.11
  14. Akron Togliatti Away −0.48
  15. Zenit St. Petersburg Home +0.54
  16. Rubin Kazan Home −0.14
  17. CSKA Moscow Away −0.11
  18. Baltika Kaliningrad Home +0.25
  19. Akron Togliatti Home −0.48
  20. FC Sochi Away −0.50
  21. FC Spartak Moscow Away +0.54
  22. Akhmat Grozny Home −0.13
  23. Orenburg Home +0.01
  24. Zenit St. Petersburg Away +0.54
  25. Dynamo Moscow Away +0.19
  26. Dinamo Makhachkala Home −0.11
  27. FC Rostov Away −0.01
  28. Lokomotiv Moscow Home +0.26
  29. Krylya Sovetov Samara Away −0.42
  30. FK Krasnodar Home +0.59

Last 5

+0.03 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · tied number 6 hardest of 16

  1. Rubin Kazan Away −0.14
  2. CSKA Moscow Home −0.11
  3. Akhmat Grozny Away −0.13
  4. FC Spartak Moscow Home +0.54
  5. Orenburg Away +0.01

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Pari Nizhny Novgorod shots and chance quality

Average volume, low quality. Pari Nizhny Novgorod take 11.3 shots a match (league 12.2) at 0.10 npxG a shot (league 0.12), #11 in Russian Premier League for volume and #16 for quality. 59% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%).

Attack

Shot volume
11.3 shots per match
#11/16
Shot volume (shots per match) across Russian Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 FK Krasnodar 15.8
#2 Dynamo Moscow 15.5
#3 Lokomotiv Moscow 14.1
#4 CSKA Moscow 13.8
#5 FC Spartak Moscow 13.6
#6 Zenit St. Petersburg 13.2
#7 Baltika Kaliningrad 12.5
#8 Orenburg 12.3
#9 FC Rostov 11.9
#10 Akhmat Grozny 11.8
#11 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 11.3
#12 Akron Togliatti 11.3
#13 Rubin Kazan 10.3
#14 Dinamo Makhachkala 9.8
#15 FC Sochi 9.1
#16 Krylya Sovetov Samara 8.9
League avg
12.2
Total
327 shots from 29 matches
Chance quality
0.10 npxG per shot
#16/16
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Russian Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Lokomotiv Moscow 0.13
#2 Zenit St. Petersburg 0.13
#3 FC Spartak Moscow 0.13
#4 Akron Togliatti 0.12
#5 FK Krasnodar 0.12
#6 Baltika Kaliningrad 0.12
#7 Dynamo Moscow 0.12
#8 FC Rostov 0.11
#9 Krylya Sovetov Samara 0.11
#10 Orenburg 0.11
#11 Dinamo Makhachkala 0.11
#12 Rubin Kazan 0.11
#13 CSKA Moscow 0.11
#14 Akhmat Grozny 0.11
#15 FC Sochi 0.10
#16 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0.10
League avg
0.12
Total
32.29 npxG from 327 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.3 shots per match
#12/16
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Russian Premier League, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Zenit St. Petersburg 9.8
#2 FK Krasnodar 10.0
#3 FC Spartak Moscow 10.1
#4 FC Rostov 10.3
#5 Dinamo Makhachkala 10.8
#6 Baltika Kaliningrad 10.8
#7 Dynamo Moscow 10.9
#8 Lokomotiv Moscow 11.7
#9 Rubin Kazan 11.7
#10 Akhmat Grozny 12.4
#11 Orenburg 13.2
#12 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 13.3
#13 CSKA Moscow 13.9
#14 FC Sochi 15.0
#15 Krylya Sovetov Samara 15.4
#16 Akron Togliatti 15.7
League avg
12.2
Total
386 shots allowed from 29 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.14 npxGA per shot
#15/16
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Russian Premier League, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Zenit St. Petersburg 0.09
#2 FK Krasnodar 0.10
#3 Baltika Kaliningrad 0.10
#4 Rubin Kazan 0.11
#5 Akhmat Grozny 0.11
#6 Dinamo Makhachkala 0.11
#7 CSKA Moscow 0.11
#8 Krylya Sovetov Samara 0.12
#9 Akron Togliatti 0.12
#10 FC Rostov 0.12
#11 FC Spartak Moscow 0.12
#12 Orenburg 0.12
#13 Dynamo Moscow 0.12
#14 FC Sochi 0.13
#15 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 0.14
#16 Lokomotiv Moscow 0.14
League avg
0.12
Total
52.44 npxGA from 386 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

59% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 193 of 327 shots over 29 matches

Shots allowed, location

67% allowed inside the box

League avg 63%

From 259 of 386 shots allowed over 29 matches

How the shot figures are made →

Pari Nizhny Novgorod home and away xG

Pari Nizhny Novgorod per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 15 15 14 with xG
xG / match 1.29 0.93
xGA / match 1.46 2.18
xGD / match -0.18 -1.25
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.22 0.68

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Pari Nizhny Novgorod match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
30 29 with xG
xG / match
1.11
xGA / match
1.81
xGD / match
-0.69
Points
23 of 90
  1. Sun 17/05 Rubin Kazan A
  2. Mon 11/05 CSKA Moscow H xG 1.87 xGA 2.54 xGD -0.67
  3. Sun 03/05 Akhmat Grozny A xG 1.07 xGA 2.03 xGD -0.96
  4. Sun 26/04 FC Spartak Moscow H xG 0.79 xGA 1.71 xGD -0.92
  5. Wed 22/04 Orenburg A xG 0.93 xGA 2.94 xGD -2.01
  6. Sat 18/04 Dynamo Moscow H xG 0.66 xGA 2.46 xGD -1.80
  7. Sat 11/04 Baltika Kaliningrad A xG 0.49 xGA 1.95 xGD -1.46
  8. Sun 05/04 FC Rostov H xG 0.65 xGA 0.87 xGD -0.22
  9. Sat 21/03 FK Krasnodar A xG 1.22 xGA 2.39 xGD -1.17
  10. Sun 15/03 Krylya Sovetov Samara H Best underlying xG 3.20 xGA 0.45 xGD +2.75
  11. Sat 07/03 FC Sochi H xG 1.42 xGA 0.92 xGD +0.50
  12. Sat 28/02 Lokomotiv Moscow A xG 1.64 xGA 1.80 xGD -0.16
  13. Sun 07/12 Dinamo Makhachkala A xG 1.67 xGA 0.72 xGD +0.95
  14. Sat 29/11 Akron Togliatti A xG 2.61 xGA 1.98 xGD +0.63
  15. Sun 23/11 Zenit St. Petersburg H xG 0.27 xGA 1.35 xGD -1.08
  16. Sat 08/11 Rubin Kazan H xG 0.89 xGA 0.73 xGD +0.16
  17. Fri 31/10 CSKA Moscow A xG 0.24 xGA 2.40 xGD -2.16
  18. Sun 26/10 Baltika Kaliningrad H xG 1.10 xGA 0.32 xGD +0.78
  19. Sat 18/10 Akron Togliatti H Against the chances xG 2.15 xGA 1.15 xGD +1.00
  20. Sun 05/10 FC Sochi A xG 0.81 xGA 2.02 xGD -1.21
  21. Sun 28/09 FC Spartak Moscow A xG 0.41 xGA 1.71 xGD -1.30
  22. Sat 20/09 Akhmat Grozny H xG 1.25 xGA 2.11 xGD -0.86
  23. Sat 13/09 Orenburg H xG 2.00 xGA 2.08 xGD -0.08
  24. Sat 30/08 Zenit St. Petersburg A xG 0.33 xGA 2.49 xGD -2.16
  25. Sat 23/08 Dynamo Moscow A Weakest underlying xG 0.74 xGA 5.23 xGD -4.49
  26. Mon 18/08 Dinamo Makhachkala H xG 0.92 xGA 1.84 xGD -0.92
  27. Sun 10/08 FC Rostov A xG 0.16 xGA 1.93 xGD -1.77
  28. Sat 02/08 Lokomotiv Moscow H xG 1.41 xGA 1.28 xGD +0.13
  29. Fri 25/07 Krylya Sovetov Samara A xG 0.67 xGA 0.90 xGD -0.23
  30. Sun 20/07 FK Krasnodar H xG 0.72 xGA 2.14 xGD -1.42

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 5.23. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Pari Nizhny Novgorod in Russian Premier League

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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