Russian Premier League expected points table 2026/2027
Every Russian Premier League club ranked on the points its match-by-match chances were worth, with the position the real table gives it and the distance between the two.
FK Krasnodar lead on expected points with 3.74 over 2 matches with xG. That is 2.06 clear of Akhmat Grozny. FC Spartak Moscow sit 6 places higher in the table than their chances place them: 2 against 8 on expected points. Rodina Moscow sit 10 places lower in the table than their chances place them: 15 against 5 on expected points.
Table against xPts
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
- Fewer than 3 places apart
Ranked on expected points
| # | Team | P | Pts | xPts | Pts vs xPts | Actual | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Krasnodar FKK | 9 | 21 | 3.74 | +0.26 | 1 | Same place as on expected points |
| 2 | Akhmat Grozny AKH | 9 | 10 | 1.68 | −0.68 | 10 | 8 places below its expected-points rank |
| 3 | Orenburg ORE | 9 | 9 | 1.48 | −0.48 | 11 | 8 places below its expected-points rank |
| 4 | Krylya Sovetov Samara KRY | 9 | 11 | 1.46 | +1.54 | 9 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 5 | Rodina Moscow ROD | 9 | 5 | 1.33 | −1.33 | 15 | 10 places below its expected-points rank |
| 6 | Lokomotiv Moscow LOK | 9 | 7 | 1.06 | −0.06 | 14 | 8 places below its expected-points rank |
| 7 | Rubin Kazan RUB | 9 | 12 | 0.33 | −0.33 | 6 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Akron Togliatti AKR | 9 | 8 | — | — | 12 | 4 places below its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Baltika Kaliningrad BAL | 9 | 11 | — | — | 8 | Same place as on expected points |
| 8 | CSKA Moscow CSK | 9 | 19 | — | — | 3 | 5 places above its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Dinamo Makhachkala DIN | 9 | 12 | — | — | 7 | 1 place above its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Dynamo Moscow DYN | 9 | 19 | — | — | 4 | 4 places above its expected-points rank |
| 8 | FC Rostov FCR | 9 | 8 | — | — | 13 | 5 places below its expected-points rank |
| 8 | FC Spartak Moscow FCS | 9 | 19 | — | — | 2 | 6 places above its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Fakel Voronezh FAK | 9 | 3 | — | — | 16 | 8 places below its expected-points rank |
| 8 | Zenit St. Petersburg ZEN | 9 | 18 | — | — | 5 | 3 places above its expected-points rank |
16 of the 16 clubs here have expected figures over fewer matches than they have played. For those clubs every expected figure counts only the matches with xG, and the goals it is compared with come from those same matches.
- Higher in the table than on xPts
- Lower in the table than on xPts
A gap can come from finishing, goalkeeping, game state or chance. xG and xPts are model estimates, not the result a team deserved.
About these figures What each column measures, and the thresholds this ranking is under. Show Hide
- P
- — Matches played
- Pts
- — Points
- xPts
- — Expected points: the points a team's match-by-match xG would be worth on average.
- Pts vs xPts
- — Actual points minus expected points based on match xG.
- Actual
- — Position in the real table
- Diff
- — Places between this ranking and the real table. Up is a club higher in the real table than its expected points place it.
Every club with expected goals behind it is ranked here: these are season totals rather than rates, so a club is not held back by having played fewer matches. The ranking opens once the median club has played 3.