Monday, 19/10/2026 at 18:30
14d 8h to kick-offRodina Moscow – Orenburg
Model updated 5 October, 09:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Rodina Moscow
- 37%
- Draw
- 27%
- Orenburg
- 36%
| Rodina Moscow | Draw | Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.69 | 3.71 | 2.78 |
- Total goals
- 3.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 66%
- Both teams to score
- 71%
One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
37% Rodina Moscow to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 10th
- Rodina Moscow attack v Orenburg defence
- Defence
- 15th vs 5th
- Rodina Moscow defence v Orenburg attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.11 vs +0.33
- xGD per match, last match
- Projected goals
- 1.66 – 1.63
- Rodina Moscow v Orenburg
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 1 match, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Rodina Moscow | Orenburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.51 from 1 match | 1.44 from 1 match |
| xGA / match | 2.62 from 1 match | (better) 1.29 from 1 match |
| xGD / match | -0.11 from 1 match | (better) +0.15 from 1 match |
| xPts / match | 1.33 from 1 match | (better) 1.48 from 1 match |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.11 from 1 match | (better) +0.33 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- Rodina Moscow clean sheet
- 17%
- Rodina Moscow 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 34%
- Both teams to score: no
- 29%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.0%
- 2:1
- 9.4%
- 1:2
- 9.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Rodina Moscow sample
- 1 match
- Orenburg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Rodina Moscow
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Orenburg
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 09:30
Warnings
- Rodina Moscow has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.