Thursday, 17/09/2026 at 15:15
Full timeOrenburg 0:0 FK Krasnodar
FK Krasnodar were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was FK Krasnodar's attack: 1.29 xG against 1.73 projected (−0.44).
The model against the result
- Orenburg
- 26%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- FK Krasnodar
- 46%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Krasnodar produced 0.44 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 16
- On target
- 6
- 1
- Inside the box
- 10
- 10
- xG per shot
- 0.08
- 0.08
Recent form
1.70 xG created 1.51 xGA
- L 1.15 created, 1.85 conceded against Lokomotiv Moscow
- W 2.94 created, 0.93 conceded against Pari Nizhny Novgorod
- W 1.37 created, 1.49 conceded against FC Rostov
- L 1.14 created, 1.06 conceded against FC Sochi
- W 2.22 created, 1.04 conceded against Krylya Sovetov Samara
- L 1.39 created, 2.69 conceded against FK Krasnodar
1.87 xG created 1.46 xGA
- W 1.22 created, 3.13 conceded against FC Spartak Moscow
- W 2.18 created, 1.78 conceded against Dinamo Makhachkala
- W 1.30 created, 0.35 conceded against Akron Togliatti
- L 1.32 created, 1.31 conceded against Dynamo Moscow
- W 2.69 created, 1.39 conceded against Orenburg
- W 2.49 created, 0.79 conceded against Rubin Kazan
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg to win | 4.74 | +23.3% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.79 | +7.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.77 | +3.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg | 26.0% | 19.9% | +6.1 pp | 3.85 |
| Draw | 27.5% | 25.1% | +2.5 pp | 3.63 |
| FK Krasnodar | 46.5% | 55.0% | −8.5 pp | 2.15 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.9% | 52.7% | +7.2 pp | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 47.3% | −7.2 pp | 2.49 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Orenburg sample
- 20 matches
- FK Krasnodar sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.