Aberdeen 0:0 Kilmarnock: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

Aberdeen Home 0.85 xG · 10 shots

Kilmarnock Away 0.93 xG · 11 shots

00 The chances were evenly matched

Aberdeen were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Aberdeen's attack: 0.85 xG against 1.43 projected (−0.58). Kilmarnock produced 0.93 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.27).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Aberdeen: 40%
Draw: 31% What happened
Kilmarnock: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Aberdeen 1.43 0.85 -0.58

Kilmarnock 1.20 0.93 -0.27

Aberdeen produced 0.58 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Aberdeen Kilmarnock

Shots: 10; 11
On target: 2; 4
Inside the box: 6; 8
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.08
Open play xG: 0.70; 0.63
Set-piece xG: 0.13; 0.28
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.85 for Aberdeen and 0.93 for Kilmarnock.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

21 shots · 1.74 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Aberdeen
Kilmarnock
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Aberdeen

1.05 xG created 1.85 xGA

L 0.52 created, 1.46 conceded against St. Mirren
L 1.29 created, 1.78 conceded against Dundee FC
W 2.66 created, 1.34 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
L 0.70 created, 2.22 conceded against Dundee FC
L 0.45 created, 1.84 conceded against Rangers
L 0.66 created, 2.47 conceded against Celtic

Kilmarnock

1.43 xG created 2.19 xGA

W 3.38 created, 0.43 conceded against Dundee FC
W 2.08 created, 0.69 conceded against Livingston
L 0.79 created, 1.76 conceded against St. Johnstone
L 0.86 created, 5.64 conceded against Celtic
L 1.03 created, 3.50 conceded against Dundee United
L 0.43 created, 1.09 conceded against St. Mirren

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Aberdeen: 3 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Aberdeen against Kilmarnock before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Kilmarnock to win	4.75	+37.6%	Lost
Draw	3.80	+16.0%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.20	+9.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Aberdeen	40.5%	55.9%	−15.4 pp	2.47
Draw	30.5%	24.5%	+6.0 pp	3.28
Kilmarnock	29.0%	19.6%	+9.4 pp	3.45

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.0%	55.7%	+3.2 pp	1.70
Both teams not to score	41.0%	44.3%	−3.2 pp	2.44
Over 1.5 goals	78.0%	78.9%	−0.9 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	22.0%	21.1%	+0.9 pp	4.55
Over 2.5 goals	50.1%	56.9%	−6.8 pp	2.00
Under 2.5 goals	49.9%	43.1%	+6.8 pp	2.01

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Aberdeen sample: 20 matches
Kilmarnock sample: 20 matches
Computed: 59 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.