Saturday, 29/08/2026 at 16:00
Full timeKilmarnock 0:4 Dundee United
Dundee United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Dundee United's attack: 3.50 xG against 1.52 projected (+1.98). Kilmarnock produced 1.03 xG against 1.50 projected (−0.47).
Goals
- 12' Emmanuel Agyei Dundee United · 0.07 xG chance 0–1
- 36' Zachary Sapsford (pen.) Dundee United · 0.82 xG chance 0–2
- 41' William Ferry Dundee United · 0.03 xG chance 0–3
- 77' Jesse Randall Dundee United · 0.22 xG chance 0–4
The model against the result
- Kilmarnock
- 35%
- Draw
- 28%
- Dundee United
- 36% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Dundee United produced 1.98 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 21
- On target
- 4
- 8
- Inside the box
- 10
- 15
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 1.04
- 1.73
- Set-piece xG
- 0.02
- 0.83
- Penalties
- 0
- 1
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.03 for Kilmarnock and 2.59 for Dundee United.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
37 shots · 4.44 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Kilmarnock
- Dundee United
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.71 xG created 1.85 xGA
0.94 xG created 1.48 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged4 won1 lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +7.4% | Lost |
| Dundee United 2+ goals | 2.25 | +4.0% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +1.2% | Won |
| Dundee United to score | 1.25 | +0.9% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | +0.1% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock | 35.5% | 37.9% | −2.4 pp | 2.82 |
| Draw | 28.4% | 27.1% | +1.4 pp | 3.52 |
| Dundee United | 36.1% | 35.1% | +1.0 pp | 2.77 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilmarnock to score | 80.4% | 76.6% | +3.8 pp | 1.24 |
| Kilmarnock not to score | 19.6% | 23.4% | −3.8 pp | 5.11 |
| Dundee United to score | 80.7% | 75.0% | +5.7 pp | 1.24 |
| Dundee United not to score | 19.3% | 25.0% | −5.7 pp | 5.19 |
| Both teams to score | 66.5% | 57.7% | +8.8 pp | 1.50 |
| Both teams not to score | 33.5% | 42.3% | −8.8 pp | 2.98 |
| Kilmarnock 2+ goals | 45.7% | 44.3% | +1.5 pp | 2.19 |
| Kilmarnock at most 1 goal | 54.3% | 55.7% | −1.5 pp | 1.84 |
| Dundee United 2+ goals | 46.2% | 41.1% | +5.1 pp | 2.16 |
| Dundee United at most 1 goal | 53.8% | 58.9% | −5.1 pp | 1.86 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.3% | 78.9% | +5.4 pp | 1.19 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 15.7% | 21.1% | −5.4 pp | 6.39 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.1% | 56.9% | +3.2 pp | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 43.1% | −3.2 pp | 2.50 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kilmarnock sample
- 20 matches
- Dundee United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 6 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 6 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.