Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 16:00
34d 15h to kick-offDundee United – Motherwell
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dundee United
- 34%
- Draw
- 30%
- Motherwell
- 35%
| Dundee United | Draw | Motherwell | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.93 | 3.29 | 2.83 |
- Total goals
- 2.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
35% Motherwell to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 10th
- Motherwell attack v Dundee United defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 3rd
- Motherwell defence v Dundee United attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.27 vs +0.10
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.33 – 1.36
- Dundee United v Motherwell
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dundee United | Motherwell |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.56 · 5th | 1.36 · 7th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.44 · 4th | 1.58 · 10th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.11 · 5th | -0.22 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.43 · 5th | 1.37 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.10 | -0.27 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Motherwell clean sheet
- 24%
- Motherwell 2+ goals
- 40%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 1:2
- 9.6%
- 2:1
- 9.4%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dundee United sample
- 20 matches
- Motherwell sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dundee United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Motherwell
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.