Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 16:00
20d 13h to kick-offDundee United – Aberdeen
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Dundee United
- 44%
- Draw
- 31%
- Aberdeen
- 25%
| Dundee United | Draw | Aberdeen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.29 | 3.18 | 4.03 |
- Total goals
- 2.43
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%
- Both teams to score
- 54%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Dundee United
44% Dundee United to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 7th
- Dundee United attack v Aberdeen defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 12th
- Dundee United defence v Aberdeen attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.10 vs -0.89
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.40 – 1.03
- Dundee United v Aberdeen
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Dundee United | Aberdeen |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.56 · 5th | 1.00 · 10th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.44 · 4th | 1.57 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.11 · 5th | -0.57 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.43 · 5th | 0.96 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.10 | -0.89 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- Dundee United clean sheet
- 33%
- Dundee United 2+ goals
- 42%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 55%
- Both teams to score: no
- 46%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.2%
- 2:1
- 10.6%
- 1:0
- 10.0%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Dundee United sample
- 20 matches
- Aberdeen sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Dundee United
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Aberdeen
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.