Dundee United 1:1 Falkirk FC: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

Dundee United Home 2.27 xG · 27 shots

Falkirk FC Away 0.85 xG · 12 shots

11 Dundee United had the better chances, but it finished level

Dundee United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was Dundee United's attack: 2.27 xG against 1.27 projected (+1.00). Falkirk FC produced 0.85 xG against 1.25 projected (−0.40).

Goals

4' Jacob Murrell Falkirk FC · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
90' Michael Forbes Dundee United · 0.07 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Dundee United: 35%
Draw: 32% What happened
Falkirk FC: 34%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Dundee United 1.27 2.27 +1.00

Falkirk FC 1.25 0.85 -0.40

Dundee United produced 1.00 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Dundee United Falkirk FC

Shots: 27; 12
On target: 9; 4
Inside the box: 21; 8
xG per shot: 0.08; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.60; 0.72
Set-piece xG: 1.63; 0.17
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.28 for Dundee United and 0.87 for Falkirk FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

39 shots · 3.12 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Dundee United
Falkirk FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Dundee United

1.24 xG created 1.57 xGA

D 0.36 created, 1.00 conceded against St. Mirren
D 1.64 created, 1.46 conceded against Rangers
L 0.54 created, 2.09 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
L 1.23 created, 1.68 conceded against Dundee FC
W 3.50 created, 1.03 conceded against Kilmarnock
L 0.19 created, 2.15 conceded against Motherwell

Falkirk FC

0.85 xG created 1.71 xGA

L 0.30 created, 0.59 conceded against Heart of Midlothian
L 2.26 created, 2.67 conceded against Rangers
L 0.71 created, 1.64 conceded against St. Mirren
D 0.44 created, 0.89 conceded against Motherwell
L 0.53 created, 2.87 conceded against Celtic
L 0.85 created, 1.57 conceded against Rangers

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Dundee United: 1 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged2 won2 lost

Lost
Won
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Dundee United against Falkirk FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Falkirk FC to win	3.60	+21.0%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+14.1%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+10.8%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+3.4%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Dundee United	34.7%	48.0%	−13.3 pp	2.88
Draw	31.7%	26.0%	+5.7 pp	3.16
Falkirk FC	33.6%	26.0%	+7.6 pp	2.98

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	57.5%	57.7%	−0.1 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.5%	42.3%	+0.1 pp	2.35
Over 1.5 goals	76.1%	78.0%	−1.9 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.9%	22.0%	+1.9 pp	4.19
Over 2.5 goals	47.2%	54.9%	−7.6 pp	2.12
Under 2.5 goals	52.8%	45.1%	+7.6 pp	1.90

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Dundee United sample: 20 matches
Falkirk FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 59 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.