Atalanta 2:1 Sassuolo: xG & match report · Serie A

Sunday, 23/08/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Atalanta Home 0.88 xG · 14 shots

Sassuolo Away 2.70 xG · 22 shots

21 The result went against the chances

Atalanta were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 58%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Sassuolo's attack: 2.70 xG against 0.98 projected (+1.72). Atalanta produced 0.88 xG against 1.87 projected (−0.99).

Goals

6' Giacomo Raspadori Atalanta · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
55' Cas Odenthal Sassuolo · 0.62 xG chance 1–1
65' Nikola Krstović Atalanta · 0.13 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Atalanta: 58% What happened
Draw: 26%
Sassuolo: 16%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Atalanta 1.87 0.88 -0.99

Sassuolo 0.98 2.70 +1.72

Sassuolo produced 1.72 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Atalanta Sassuolo

Shots: 14; 22
On target: 7; 8
Inside the box: 8; 12
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.65; 1.41
Set-piece xG: 0.04; 1.24
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.71 for Atalanta and 2.72 for Sassuolo.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

36 shots · 3.34 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Atalanta
Sassuolo
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Atalanta

1.22 xG created 1.15 xGA

D 0.68 created, 1.07 conceded against Roma
L 1.18 created, 1.56 conceded against Cagliari
D 1.96 created, 0.52 conceded against Genoa
W 1.38 created, 2.21 conceded against Milan
L 0.76 created, 0.69 conceded against Bologna
D 1.38 created, 0.85 conceded against Fiorentina

Sassuolo

1.57 xG created 1.40 xGA

W 1.38 created, 0.59 conceded against Como
D 0.88 created, 1.94 conceded against Fiorentina
W 1.58 created, 0.24 conceded against Milan
L 2.24 created, 3.26 conceded against Torino
L 2.45 created, 1.26 conceded against Lecce
L 0.91 created, 1.12 conceded against Parma

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Atalanta: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged1 won2 lost

Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Atalanta against Sassuolo before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Sassuolo to win	6.50	+6.7%	Lost
Draw	4.10	+5.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.80	+4.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Atalanta	57.8%	62.1%	−4.3 pp	1.73
Draw	25.7%	23.2%	+2.5 pp	3.89
Sassuolo	16.4%	14.7%	+1.8 pp	6.09

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.2%	52.0%	+6.2 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	41.8%	48.0%	−6.2 pp	2.39
Over 1.5 goals	81.7%	78.0%	+3.7 pp	1.22
Under 1.5 goals	18.3%	22.0%	−3.7 pp	5.46
Over 2.5 goals	55.9%	56.9%	−1.0 pp	1.79
Under 2.5 goals	44.1%	43.1%	+1.0 pp	2.27

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Atalanta sample: 20 matches
Sassuolo sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 days before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.