Inter 1:1 Atalanta: xG & match report · Serie A

Saturday, 14/03/2026 at 15:00

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Match report · Serie A

Inter Home 1.58 xG · 16 shots

Atalanta Away 1.12 xG · 8 shots

11 Inter had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

26' Francesco Pio Esposito Inter · 0.05 xG chance 1–0
82' Nikola Krstović Atalanta · 0.66 xG chance 1–1

The shots behind it

Inter Atalanta

Shots: 16; 8
On target: 3; 3
Inside the box: 11; 5
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.17
Open play xG: 1.48; 1.28
Set-piece xG: 0.07; 0.04
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.58 for Inter and 1.33 for Atalanta.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

24 shots · 2.87 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Inter
Atalanta
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Inter

1.79 xG created 0.57 xGA

W 1.34 created, 0.60 conceded against Cremonese
W 2.59 created, 0.78 conceded against Sassuolo
W 1.88 created, 0.92 conceded against Juventus
W 2.15 created, 0.12 conceded against Lecce
W 1.54 created, 0.21 conceded against Genoa
L 1.24 created, 0.77 conceded against Milan

Atalanta

1.66 xG created 1.71 xGA

D 0.52 created, 5.24 conceded against Como
W 2.11 created, 0.62 conceded against Cremonese
W 1.61 created, 1.02 conceded against Lazio
W 0.75 created, 1.08 conceded against Napoli
L 2.98 created, 1.52 conceded against Sassuolo
D 2.00 created, 0.77 conceded against Udinese

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Inter: 1 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Atalanta 0:1 Inter 28/12/2025 xG 0.78 – 1.16

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.