Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 18:30
Full timeInter 4:1 Monza
Inter were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was Inter's attack: 1.05 xG against 1.71 projected (−0.66). Monza produced 1.23 xG against 0.91 projected (+0.32).
Goals
- 6' Hakan Çalhanoğlu Inter · 0.01 xG chance 1–0
- 29' Gustavo Varela Monza · 0.05 xG chance 1–1
- 48' Piotr Zieliński Inter · 0.06 xG chance 2–1
- 55' Francesco Pio Esposito Inter · 0.17 xG chance 3–1
- 63' Yann Bisseck Inter · 0.10 xG chance 4–1
The model against the result
- Inter
- 56% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Monza
- 17%
Data coverage The model has never seen one of these sides play. Every figure here rests on an exactly average stand-in for it, which is a guess in a projection's clothes.
Projected vs produced
Inter produced 0.66 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 13
- 7
- On target
- 5
- 3
- Inside the box
- 10
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.16
- Open play xG
- 0.79
- 1.10
- Set-piece xG
- 0.39
- 0.00
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.16 for Inter and 1.09 for Monza.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
20 shots · 2.28 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Inter
- Monza
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged2 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza to win | 13.00 | +118.6% | Lost |
| Monza 2+ goals | 8.00 | +81.4% | Lost |
| Draw | 6.50 | +79.7% | Lost |
| Inter not to score | 10.00 | +56.2% | Lost |
| Inter at most 1 goal | 3.00 | +41.7% | Lost |
| Monza to score | 2.20 | +37.8% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 2.38 | +29.4% | Won |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | +15.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 4.50 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter | 55.5% | 78.0% | −22.5 pp | 1.80 |
| Draw | 27.6% | 14.7% | +13.0 pp | 3.62 |
| Monza | 16.8% | 7.3% | +9.5 pp | 5.95 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inter to score | 84.4% | 90.4% | −6.0 pp | 1.19 |
| Inter not to score | 15.6% | 9.6% | +6.0 pp | 6.40 |
| Monza to score | 62.6% | 42.3% | +20.3 pp | 1.60 |
| Monza not to score | 37.4% | 57.7% | −20.3 pp | 2.68 |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 39.2% | +15.3 pp | 1.83 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.5% | 60.8% | −15.3 pp | 2.20 |
| Inter 2+ goals | 52.8% | 68.7% | −16.0 pp | 1.89 |
| Inter at most 1 goal | 47.2% | 31.3% | +16.0 pp | 2.12 |
| Monza 2+ goals | 22.7% | 11.9% | +10.8 pp | 4.41 |
| Monza at most 1 goal | 77.3% | 88.1% | −10.8 pp | 1.29 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.8% | 78.9% | −1.2 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.2% | 21.1% | +1.2 pp | 4.50 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% | 58.7% | −8.9 pp | 2.01 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 41.3% | +8.9 pp | 1.99 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Inter sample
- 20 matches
- Monza sample
- 0 matches
- Computed
- 9 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Warnings
- There is not a single played match in the database for Monza — the estimate for that side is the league average and nothing else.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.