Napoli 1:0 Milan: xG & match report · Serie A

Monday, 06/04/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Napoli Home 0.75 xG · 10 shots

Milan Away 0.47 xG · 7 shots

10 The scoreline reflected the chances

Goals

79' Matteo Politano Napoli · 0.09 xG chance 1–0

The shots behind it

Napoli Milan

Shots: 10; 7
On target: 3; 1
Inside the box: 7; 5
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.07
Open play xG: 0.52; 0.17
Set-piece xG: 0.22; 0.29
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.75 for Napoli and 0.47 for Milan.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

17 shots · 1.20 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Napoli
Milan
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Napoli

1.14 xG created 0.71 xGA

D 0.58 created, 1.70 conceded against Roma
L 1.08 created, 0.75 conceded against Atalanta
W 0.85 created, 0.31 conceded against Hellas Verona
W 1.24 created, 0.37 conceded against Torino
W 1.30 created, 0.76 conceded against Lecce
W 1.77 created, 0.35 conceded against Cagliari

Milan

1.50 xG created 1.13 xGA

D 0.76 created, 1.45 conceded against Como
L 1.33 created, 0.46 conceded against Parma
W 3.51 created, 0.99 conceded against Cremonese
W 0.77 created, 1.24 conceded against Inter
L 1.19 created, 0.41 conceded against Lazio
W 1.43 created, 2.22 conceded against Torino

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Napoli: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Milan 2:1 Napoli 28/09/2025 xG 0.75 – 2.96

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.