Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 20:45
13d 19h to kick-offRoma – Genoa
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Roma
- 61%
- Draw
- 26%
- Genoa
- 13%
| Roma | Draw | Genoa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.64 | 3.79 | 7.88 |
- Total goals
- 2.49
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score
- 49%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Roma
61% Roma to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 11th
- Roma attack v Genoa defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 18th
- Roma defence v Genoa attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.63 vs -0.49
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.75 – 0.75
- Roma v Genoa
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Roma | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.56 · 2nd | 0.89 · 18th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.11 · 4th | 1.33 · joint 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.45 · 2nd | -0.44 · joint 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.23 · 1st | 1.00 · 14th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.63 | -0.49 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 39% of the model's distribution.
- Roma clean sheet
- 45%
- Roma 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score: no
- 51%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.7%
- 2:0
- 12.9%
- 1:0
- 12.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Roma sample
- 20 matches
- Genoa sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Roma
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Genoa
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.