Venezia 2:4 Fiorentina: xG & match report · Serie A

Friday, 11/09/2026 at 20:45

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Match report · Serie A

Venezia Home 0.49 xG · 11 shots

Fiorentina Away 3.31 xG · 19 shots

24 The scoreline reflected the chances

Venezia were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. Fiorentina won 4–2. The biggest difference was Fiorentina's attack: 3.31 xG against 1.27 projected (+2.04). Venezia produced 0.49 xG against 1.43 projected (−0.94).

Goals

22' Akor Adams Venezia · 0.07 xG chance 1–0
29' Franco Mastantuono Fiorentina · 0.02 xG chance 1–1
30' Franco Mastantuono Fiorentina · 0.06 xG chance 1–2
66' Mateo Pellegrino Fiorentina · 0.25 xG chance 1–3
84' Franco Mastantuono Fiorentina · 0.63 xG chance 1–4
86' Antoine Hainaut Venezia · 0.09 xG chance 2–4

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Venezia: 39%
Draw: 30%
Fiorentina: 31% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 3 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Venezia 1.43 0.49 -0.94

Fiorentina 1.27 3.31 +2.04

Fiorentina produced 2.04 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Venezia Fiorentina

Shots: 11; 19
On target: 4; 10
Inside the box: 8; 15
xG per shot: 0.06; 0.19
Open play xG: 0.42; 3.61
Set-piece xG: 0.28; 0.04
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.71 for Venezia and 3.68 for Fiorentina.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

30 shots · 4.35 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Venezia
Fiorentina
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Venezia

1.67 xG created 2.27 xGA

L 2.05 created, 2.70 conceded against Lecce
L 0.80 created, 2.21 conceded against Milan
L 2.17 created, 1.90 conceded against Frosinone

Fiorentina

1.08 xG created 1.44 xGA

D 1.00 created, 0.50 conceded against Genoa
W 0.47 created, 1.98 conceded against Juventus
D 0.85 created, 1.38 conceded against Atalanta
L 0.35 created, 3.07 conceded against Roma
L 2.13 created, 1.11 conceded against Frosinone
L 1.67 created, 0.58 conceded against Torino

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Venezia against Fiorentina before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Venezia to win	2.88	+11.0%	Lost
Fiorentina at most 1 goal	1.67	+4.8%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+0.7%	Lost
Fiorentina not to score	4.00	+0.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Venezia	38.6%	33.1%	+5.5 pp	2.59
Draw	30.3%	28.8%	+1.4 pp	3.30
Fiorentina	31.1%	38.1%	−7.0 pp	3.22

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Venezia to score	78.6%	75.0%	+3.6 pp	1.27
Venezia not to score	21.4%	25.0%	−3.6 pp	4.67
Fiorentina to score	75.0%	76.6%	−1.6 pp	1.33
Fiorentina not to score	25.0%	23.4%	+1.6 pp	3.99
Both teams to score	60.7%	58.9%	+1.8 pp	1.65
Both teams not to score	39.3%	41.1%	−1.8 pp	2.54
Venezia 2+ goals	42.9%	42.3%	+0.6 pp	2.33
Venezia at most 1 goal	57.1%	57.7%	−0.6 pp	1.75
Fiorentina 2+ goals	37.1%	44.3%	−7.1 pp	2.69
Fiorentina at most 1 goal	62.9%	55.7%	+7.1 pp	1.59
Over 1.5 goals	79.4%	78.0%	+1.3 pp	1.26
Under 1.5 goals	20.6%	22.0%	−1.3 pp	4.84
Over 2.5 goals	52.0%	54.9%	−2.8 pp	1.92
Under 2.5 goals	48.0%	45.1%	+2.8 pp	2.08

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Venezia sample: 3 matches
Fiorentina sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Venezia has only 3 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.