Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 20:00
Full timeAEK Athens 5:0 Aris Thessaloniki
AEK Athens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 57%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was AEK Athens's attack: 3.53 xG against 1.62 projected (+1.91). Aris Thessaloniki produced 0.40 xG against 0.76 projected (−0.36).
Goals
- 11' Barnabás Varga AEK Athens · 0.70 xG chance 1–0
- 62' Barnabás Varga AEK Athens · 0.24 xG chance 2–0
- 67' Răzvan Marin AEK Athens · 0.47 xG chance 3–0
- 75' Aboubakary Koita AEK Athens · 0.05 xG chance 4–0
- 90' Zini AEK Athens · 0.57 xG chance 5–0
The model against the result
- AEK Athens
- 57% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- Aris Thessaloniki
- 15%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
AEK Athens produced 1.91 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 21
- 7
- On target
- 10
- 2
- Inside the box
- 16
- 3
- xG per shot
- 0.16
- 0.06
- Open play xG
- 3.09
- 0.31
- Set-piece xG
- 0.37
- 0.10
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.54 for AEK Athens and 0.40 for Aris Thessaloniki.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
28 shots · 3.87 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- AEK Athens
- Aris Thessaloniki
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.44 xG created 0.85 xGA
1.67 xG created 1.04 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 opportunities flagged0 won5 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 4.33 | +22.9% | Lost |
| Aris Thessaloniki to win | 8.00 | +16.5% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.00 | +13.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.20 | +6.2% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 3.75 | +1.7% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEK Athens | 57.1% | 66.8% | −9.7 pp | 1.75 |
| Draw | 28.4% | 21.6% | +6.8 pp | 3.53 |
| Aris Thessaloniki | 14.6% | 11.7% | +2.9 pp | 6.87 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 48.3% | 42.3% | +5.9 pp | 2.07 |
| Both teams not to score | 51.7% | 57.7% | −5.9 pp | 1.93 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.9% | 75.0% | −2.1 pp | 1.37 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27.1% | 25.0% | +2.1 pp | 3.69 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.3% | 52.6% | −9.3 pp | 2.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 56.7% | 47.4% | +9.3 pp | 1.77 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AEK Athens sample
- 20 matches
- Aris Thessaloniki sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 4 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.